HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Weaker:  CZ, -$.0150; SX, -$.0275; WZ, -$.0050; KWZ, -$.0050 

·       What caught my eye:  Late in the season but . . . IL corn ratings jump 9 points to 55% G/E; while CO, NE and ND are down 2-3 points.  What impact, if any, will these fairly significant changes have on yield?

·       Markets work lower after the S&P hits a new record.  ASIA: Mostly lower--Nikkei,+0.47%; Shanghai, -0.87%; Hang Seng, -0.39%.  EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.196%; FTSE, -.38%; CAC, -0.07%.  WALL STREET—Futures are lower-- DOW, -49; S&P, -2.50; NAS, -20.17.  EXTERNALS: Dec crude: -$0.71 @ $55.10; Gold: unch @ $1,496; $ Index: +.140 @ 97.904

• T-storm Weather®: U.S. Corn Belt temps turn sharply colder northwest to southeast through Sat. as record-breaking Arctic air oozes southward & leaves readings -15°F to -30°F from normal at times, causing killing freezes to gradually expand over the next five mornings with lows in the 0s, 10s & 20s.  A few rain & snow showers form along the leading edge of cold air today, followed by a large-scale storm Wed.-Thu. as a powerful system produces widespread precip of 0.75”-1.50” across the Corn Belt & Delta
• CZ, dn $.0150 @ $3.8250; CH, dn $.0175 @ $3.9275.  The funds were sellers of 6 K to begin the week                 
• SX, dn $.0275 @ $9.18; SF, dn $.03 @ $9.3250.  Funds: Bot 1 K  SB; 1 K SBM & sold 3 K SBO.  Board Crush: $0.87, -1; LY, $1.46
• WZ, dn $.0050 @ $5.1125; WH, dn $.0075 @ $5.1725.  The funds also sold 6 K contracts of wheat             

CORN/SORGHUM

• Corn Good/Excellent at 58% v. 56% last week & 68% last year.  Harvest at 41% v. 61% in 2018 & 5-year avg. of 61%

·       ATI Research: Updated U.S. corn ending stocks estimate for 2019/20 is 2.001 bbu vs. October USDA est. of 1.929 bbu

• T-storm Weather®: after this week’s powerful system exits on Thu., a dry period begins and lasts for at least a week as light rain and snow showers are limited to far U.S. northern areas, improving conditions for corn harvesting for most

·       U.S. sorghum harvest progress is 65% vs. 52% last year and the 5-year avg. of 62%

·       Through Oct. 28, the 2019 crop insurance harvest price for December 2019 corn futures has averaged $3.8989

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• Soybeans dropping leaves: 97% v. 100% in ‘18 & 5-year avg. of 99%; harvest at 62% v. 69% in ‘18 & 5-year avg. of 78%

·       ATI Research: updated U.S. soybean ending stocks est. for 2019/20 is 0.444 bbu vs. October USDA est. of 0.460 bbu

• T-storm Weather®: after this week’s powerful system exits on Thu., a dry period begins and lasts for at least a week as light rain and snow showers are limited to far U.S. northern areas, improving conditions for soybean harvest for most
• Through Oct. 28, the 2019 crop insurance harvest price for November 2019 soybean futures has averaged $9.2618

·       U.S. winter wheat planting pegged at 85% vs. 77% last week, 77% last year and the 5-year average of 82%

• T-storm Weather®: little to no rain affects driest southern wheat areas of Argentina over the next 10 to 14 days 

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLZ19, -$0.71 @ $51.10; EBZ, -$0.67 @ $60.90; EBZ-QCLZ, +.05; RBZ, -.0208; NGZ, +.065; HOZ, -.0231

·       Chicago ethanol eased $.00775 on Monday to $1.5623/gal; basis values were mixed:  NYC, +$.00775 @ +$.07775; Gulf, -$.00975 @ +$.04025; Dallas, +$.00275 @ +.07275; Tampa, -$.00225 @ +$.16775; LA, -$.01225 @ +$.23775 Ethanol RINs were weaker: 2018’s, -.50 @ 6-7; 2019’s, -.625 @ 14 ¾ -15 ½; 2020’s, -.6250 @ 23 ½ -25                                 &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                

&mi​ddot;       The November RBOB/November ethanol spread widened $.0158 to $.2158/gallon on Monday  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             <​wbr>                      ​;    

·    ​   Choice boxed beef was $2.46 higher on Monday at $227.90 and is up $7.77 versus last week     

• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price gained $0.40 last week to $110.13/cwt but is $3.68 lower v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 89-cents on Mon. to $75.32 and is dn $2.57 versus a week ago

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $48.00/cwt vs. last week’s $51.49, last month’s $52.75 and last year’s $40.82              

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®