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TRENDS Weaker CZ, Down 1, SF, Down 1, WZ, Down 3

November 8, 2019 07:53 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS—Weaker:  CZ, -$.0075; SF, -$.01; WZ, -$.0275; KWZ, -$.01.  November S&D/Production released 11 am CST

·       What caught my eye:  This mornings’s USDA reports will command the most attention but seems to be much going on in Brazil and China that is certainly friendly SBO longer term.  Former’s biodiesel mandate and latter’s veg oil needs as protein declines

·       On again, off again; stocks slip as trade agreement hopes fade  ASIA: Weaker--Nikkei, +0.26%; Shanghai, -0.49%; Hang Seng, -0.70%.  EUROPE: Down—DAX, -0.11%; FTSE, -0.24%; CAC, -0.08%.  WALL STREET—Futures are mostly lower-- DOW, +4; S&P, -0.50; NAS, -5.75.  EXTERNALS: Dec crude: -$2.00 $56.15; Gold: +$0.20 $1,467; $ Index+.146 @ 98.289

  • T-storm Weather®: There are no changes to the short-term outlook as a series of cool fronts trigger t-storms in much of Brazil the next 10-14 days and likely producing near-normal amounts.  Lesser rainfall will occur in Argentina due to near-by blocking high pressure system.  The best chances for rainfall are normal night and again during the Tuesday-Wednesday period of next week.  Cold and mainly dry weather prevails in the U.S. which should facilitate harvest of the remaining corn and beans in the field
  • CZ, dn $.0075 @ $3.7450; CH, dn $.01 @ $3.8275.  More fund selling, 6 K, lower yields in question?                
  • SF, dn $.01 @ $9.3330; SH, dn $.0075 @ $9.48.  Funds: Bot 6 K SB;65 K SBMO & sold 4 SBO.  Board Crush: $0.89, +2; LY, $1.09
  • WZ, dn $.0275 @ $5.0975; WH, dn $.0275 @ $5.1450.  The funds sold 5 K Thursday on slow export sales                 

CORN/SORGHUM

·  &nbs​p;    Corn Export Sales in line with expectations at 19.2 but well below the needed rate of 33/week

·       Milo Export Sales—China rumors of couple of weeks ago confirmed, buys 4.8 with 2.6 sold to Unknown

·       Trade Estimates for today’s WASDE and NASS Production reports: Corn yld down 1.1 bpa @ 167.3; production 177 mbu lower @ 13.6; stx to fall 130 mbu @1.799

·       Year-to-date sales to Asia (excluding China) are just 77 mbu, barely 1/4th of last year, a 31-yr low & vs 190 average

·       ATI Research: corn export outlook remains anemic at 17-18/week near-term & vs 41 mbu/week during Nov 2018

·       Mainly cold and dry weather will prevail in the U.S. to allow corn and soybean harvesting to continue more smoothly

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Soybeans Export Sales were very solid at 66.4, well above 22-44 trade range as China buys 35 mbu

·       Product Export Sales—another good SBM week at 262 K (172/wk needed).  SBO light at 3.8 K (11.4 needed)

·       Wheat Export Sales disappoint at 13.2, at the low end of the 13-22 trade range and vs 12.9/wk needed

·       Trade Estimates: SB yield expected 3/10’s lower @ 46.6 bpa; crop 37 mbu smaller @ 3.51; end stx dn 31 @ 429 mbu

·       Wheat ending stocks estimated to be 8 mbu lower at 1.043 billion

·       ATI Research: China SB buying likely to lift near-term SB exports to 45-55/week, 10 better than 2018 average

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLZ19, -$1.0 $56.15; EBF, -$1.15 @ $61.14; EBF-QCLF-.19; RBZ, +.0193; NGZ, +.043; HOZ, -.0325

·       Chicago ethanol rose $.02 Thursday to $1.4913/gal; basis values were weaker:  NYC, -$.05 @ +$.10625; Gulf, +$.0050 @ +$.09875; Dallas, -$.0175 @ +.07875; Tampa, -$.03 @ +$.19375; LA, -$.03 @ +$.16375

·       Ethanol RINs were steady/firm: 2018’s, +.375 @ 5 -5 ½; 2019’s, unch @ 12 ¼ -12 ½; 2020’s, +.3750 @ 22 ½ -23                                                           &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                   

​ ·       The December RBOB/December ethanol spread narrowed further, $.0227 to $.23050/gallon   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                   ​    

·       C​hoice boxed beef firmed $1.09 yesterday to $238.29 and was up $6.11 versus a week earlier     

  • Sluggish export sales of both pork and beef weighed on December lean hogs and left December live cattle flat

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value rose $0.13 Thursday to $80.20 and is up $4.48 versus the prior week

·       CME Lean Hog Index was up $.03 cents to $60.19 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



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