HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Weaker: CK, -$.01; SK, -$.0150; WK, -$.0225; KWK, -$.0325 
• What caught my eye: Brazil has been accounting for about 31% of monthly Big 4 corn exports this year.  With shipments from now through June likely to fall to less than 10 mbu/month, the other 3 shippers will need to make up +/- 125 mbu shortfall  
• Futures are higher on expectatios of fresh, positive earnings.  Asia: Higher--Nikkei, +0.24%; Shanghai, +2.39%; Hang Seng, +1.07%.  EUROPE: Mostly higher—DAX, +0.66%; FTSE, +0.39%; CAC, unch%.  WALL STREET—Looks like a good start--DOW, +114; S&P, +8.75; NAS, +30.25.  EXTERNALS: June crude:+$.10 @ $63.66; Gold:  -$5.50 @ $1,286; $ Index, NA
• T-storm Weather: Mainly dry & warm weather continue through today as highs reach the 50s-60s-70s in most areas.  Thereafter, a strong system produces rain & thunderstorms in the Corn Belt & Delta Wed.-Fri. where 0.75” to 1.50” falls & rain lingers longest, while scattered 0.25” to 0.75” totals affect the Plains; wettest east, & southern KS, & the Dakotas.  After a few days of drying, the next system is probable to produce a brief period of light showers within a wide area over Sun.-Tue. (Apr. 21-23)
• CK, dn $.01 @ $3.6175; CN, dn $.0250 @ $3.7050.  The funds began the week buying 3 K   
• SK, dn $.0150 @ $8.9725; SN, dn $.0150 @ $9.11.  Funds: Bot 3 SB, 4 SBM & sold 3 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.02, +1; LY, $1.32
• WK, dn $.0225 @ $4.5725; WN, dn $.0275 @ $4.6050.  The funds sold 5 K on Monday

CORN/SORGHUM

• USDA estimates U.S. corn planting progress as of April 14 at 3% vs. 3% last year and the 5-year average of 5%
• T-storm Weather: A much larger and stronger system remains probable to move across the central U.S. within April 24-28, producing significant rain within a wide area

·      Consultant: Brazil corn crop production estimate is increased 2.0 MMT this week to 96.5 MMT with a neutral to higher bias going forward.  The safrinha (double crop) corn continues to receive rain, even in drier southern areas

·      ATI Research: U.S. 18/19 corn ending stocks estimate is 2.200 bbu vs. the latest USDA forecast of 2.035 bbu

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Consultant: Brazil soybean crop estimate is increased 1.0 MMT to 116.0 with a neutral to higher bias going forward

• T-storm Weather: A much larger and stronger system remains probable to move across the central U.S. within April 24-28, producing significant rain within a wide area
• ATI Research: U.S. 18/19 soybean ending stocks estimate is 0.954 bbu vs. the latest USDA forecast of 0.895 bbu

·      ATI Research: Winter wheat Good/Excellent, unch at 60%; model pegs ‘19 crop @ 1.318 bbu, +3 mbu v. last week

·      T-storm Weather: 41% of U.S. HRW wheat was quite dry the last 14 days (mainly Kansas)

ENERGY

·      Higher:  CLM19, +$.10 @ $63.66; EBM, +0.05 @ $71.23; EBM-QCLM, -.06; RBM, -.0068; NGM, +.001; HOM, +.0027

·      Chicago ethanol was again $.00125 higher, to $1.3325; basis, mixed: New York, -$.0025 @ $.1350; Gulf, -$.00125 @ $.10250; Dallas, +$.00875 @ $.11250; Tampa, +$.01375 @ $.2275; LA, +$.00375 @ $.3875   

·      Ethanol RINs were weaker:  2018’s, -1.25 @ 10 -11 ½; 2019’s, -.3750 @ 16 ¾- 17  ½                                        ​               

·   &nbs​p;  The May RBOB/May ethanol spread narrowed $.0302 on Monday to+$.6768/gallon    

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                 ​                       ​

• Choice boxed beef soared $2.23 on Mon.—largest one-day increase since March 4—& is $2.31 higher vs. a week ago
• Estimates for April 18 USDA Cattle on Feed: April 1 on feed, 101.8%; Placed in Mar, 103.8%; Marketed in Mar, 96.8%

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.47 on Mon. to $85.93, and is $4.21 higher versus last week

• Current nearby board hog crush value is $71.04/cwt vs. last week’s $70.96, last month’s $58.65 & last year’s $45.06

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

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