HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mostly lower:  CZ, +$.0075; SX, -$.0050; WZ, -$.0175; KWZ, -$.0175 

·       What caught my eye:  Sub-40% maturity numbers for corn  in MN, ND & SD (40 points below the average for this time of year) seems a little worrisome in view of the frost/freeze and snow forecasts later this week

·       China’s in town for trade talks Thursday but markets seem less than enthused.  ASIA: Firm--Nikkei, +0.99%; Shanghai, +0.29%; Hang Seng, +0.28%.  EUROPE: Lower —DAX, -0.93%; FTSE, -0.12%; CAC, -0.83%.  WALL STREET—Futures are lower-- DOW, -134; S&P, -13.25; NAS, -36.50.  EXTERNALS: Nov crude: -$0.28 @ $52.47; Gold: +$3.80 @ $1,508; $ Index:-.111 @ 98.856

• Weather: A mostly dry period is forecast for western U.S. Corn Belt through Wed., before rain arrives on Thu.; heaviest for north & east areas, & may change to snow in the northwest areas before ending Fri.  It appears likely that western areas will see a freeze and possibly a hard freeze from Friday morning to Sunday morning.  Mostly dry for the eastern Corn Belt through Wed. followed by light showers on Thu.  Some heavier rain is possible during Fri.  Low temps may drop to upper 30s & low 40s on Sun. morning  
• CZ, up $.0075 @ $3.8775; CH, up $.0050 @ $3.9950.  The funds began the week buying 2 K          
• SX, dn $.01 @ $9.1425; SF, dn $.01 @ $9.2850.  Funds: Even SB, sold 1 SBM, & bot 2 SBO.  Board Crush: $0.80, unch; LY, $1.57
• WZ, dn $.0175 @ $4.8750; WH, dn $.0150 @ $4.95.  Fund selling on Monday was estimated at 2 K        

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Oct. 10 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 2019 U.S. corn crop: 13.588 bbu (range 12.736-13.833) & 13.799 in Sep.

• Oct. 10 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn carryout--19/20, 1.682 bbu (range 1.257-1.993) & 2.190 in Sep

·       Weather: NWS forecast for Oct. 13-17 is for below to much below normal precip for nearly all the western U.S. Corn Belt with below normal temps; mostly normal precip is forecast for the eastern Corn Belt with below-normal temps

• ATI Research: Updated corn harvest numbers show the overall U.S. to be 1.7 bbu behind “average” at this point
• Consultant: The 2019/20 Brazilian corn est. was left unch this week at a 105.0 MMT; full-season corn is being planted

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Oct. 10 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 2019 U.S. soybean crop: 3.563 bbu (range 3.452-3.658) & 3.633 in Sep

·       Oct. 10 WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean carryout--19/20, 0.496 bbu (range 0.342-0.584) & 0.640 in Sep

·       Weather: NWS forecast for Oct. 13-17 is for below to much below normal precip for nearly all the western U.S. Corn Belt with below normal temps; mostly normal precip is forecast for the eastern Corn Belt with below-normal temps

·       Oct. 10 WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. all wheat carryout--19/20, 1.011 bbu (range 0.939-1.054) & 1.014 in Sep

·       ATI Research: Near-term U.S. all wheat exports are forecast at 12-19 mbu per week versus 14.5 mbu last year

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLX19, -$0.28 @ $52.47; EBZ, -$0.15 @ $58.20; EBZ-QCLZ, +.16; RBX, -.0094; NGX, +.015; HOX, -.0102

·       Chicago ethanol was off $.0375 on Monday to $1.5150; basis values were firmer:  NYC, +$.0175 @ +$.06; Gulf, +$.0275 @ +$.0250; Dallas, +$.0275 @ -$.0050; Tampa, +$.0175 @ +$.1450; LA, +$.02250 @ $.1850

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker with 2018’s,-$4.00 @ 10-12; 2019’s, -.3750 @ 19 ½ -21 ½                                       &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                                  

·       The November RBOB/November ethanol spread shed $.0120 on Monday, to $.1734/gallon   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                     &n​bsp;                 

·       Choice boxed beef was 87-cents lower on Monday at $211.09 and is down $1.35 versus last week 

• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price gained $2.41 last week to $107.34/cwt but is $3.61 lower v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value soared $2.87 on Mon. to $77.22 and is up $4.17 compared to a week ago 

·         Current nearby board hog crush value is $43.02/cwt vs. last week’s $45.36, last month’s $43.16 and last year’s $35.51                        &​nbsp;   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather