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TRENDS Mostly Higher CK, Unchanged, SK, Down 2, WK, Unchanged

March 20, 2019 06:57 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS—Mostly Higher: CK, +$.0050; SK, -$.0150; WK, +$.02; KWH, +$.05.
  • What caught my eye:  Wire services see more Black Sea corn sales being made to China as long as the trade negotiations drag on without a definitive resolution
  • Global equity markets in a holding pattern.  Asia: Mostly lower-Nikkei, +0.20%; Shanghai, -0.01%; Hang Seng, -0.49%.  EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -1.16%; FTSE, -0.10%; CAC, -0.17%.  WALL STREET futures are slightly higher: DOW, +2; S&P, +0.25; NAS, +3.25.  EXTERNALS: April crude:-$0.59 @ $58.44; Gold:  -$3.70 @ $1,303; Dec $ Index+.0139 @ 94.960
  • T-storm Weather: In the U.S., seasonable temperatures begin to melt deep and extensive snowpack within the northern thirds of the Corn Belt and Plains.  Scattered rains affect much of the central U.S. over Fri.-Mon., but well-organized and heavy totals are unlikely due to limited humidity.  Better-organized rains follow next week (March 25 - April 1) as one or two moderate to strong systems pass, likely maintaining muddiness across a wide area through early April

·       CK, up $.0050 @ $3.7175; CN, up $.0075 @ $3.8150.  More fund selling, 4 K on Tuesday              

  • SK, dn $.0150 @ $9.0250; SN, dn $.0125 @ $9.1625.  Funds: Sold 2 K SB & 2 K SBO, bot 1 SBM.  Board Crush: $1.01, +1; LY, $1.16
  • WK, up $.02 @ $4.5850; WN, up $.0125 @ $4.64.  The funds sold 2 K yesterday      

CORN/SORGHUM

·  &​nbsp;    Consultant: Brazil corn crop estimate for 2018/19 is steady at 93.5 MMT with a neutral to higher bias going forward

  • T-storm Weather: In Brazil, scattered thunderstorms affect all safrinha(double crop) corn through mid- to late-week, followed by additional rain next week.  The result is heavy rain totals of 2.50” to 5.00” over the next two weeks

·       Ethanol margins: $0.18 per gallon—down vs. $0.21 last week & well below $0.38 in 2018.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

·       ATI Research: U.S. Sep-Nov corn exports (assuming zero to China) are forecast at 489 mbu v. 632 mbu in 2018 (-23%)

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. is unch at 54.0 MMT.  For the most part, the weather in Argentina continues to be beneficial for the majority of beans, especially in core production areas where harvest is just getting underway

  • T-storm Weather: In Argentina, temps to be very cool next 10 days but significant frosts/freezes unlikely for soybeans  
  • ATI Research: U.S. wheat exports next 4 weeks are forecast at 18-22 mbu per week compared to 15.7 mbu last year

·       T-storm Weather: In the U.S., at least 0.50” of rain impacts HRW wheat in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas March 22-25

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLJ19-$0.59 @ $58.44; EBK, -$0.15 @ $67.47; EBK-QCLK, +$0.48; RBJ, -.0089; NGJ, -.014HOJ, -0.0101

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +0.3 (-2.1); Gasoline, -2.4 (-2.8); Distillates, -1.1 (-1.6).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.005 mbpd (range: 0.985-1.020).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 23.531 mb (range 23.381-23.641)

·       Chicago ethanol eased $.00375 Tuesday to $1.4150; basis, mostly firmr: New York, +$.01875 @ $.13500; Gulf, -$.00625 @ $.08; Dallas, +$.00625 @ $.10750; Tampa, +$.01875 @ $.2450; LA, +$.04375 @ $.30   

·       Ethanol RINs, easier: 2017’s, unch @ 1 -3; 2018’s, -1.50 @ 7 -8 ½; 2019’s, -1.125 @ 10 ½ - 11 ¼                                             &n​bsp; 

·       The April RBOB/April ethanol spread moved back out $.0253 to+$.4841/gallon      

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY     &nbs​p;                     &n​bsp;           

  • Choice boxed beef increased $1.00 on Tuesday to $229.33, and is up $1.11 versus last week
  • Week-to-week gains in choice boxed beef have been seen for 22 consecutive trading days

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $2.04 higher on Tuesday at $72.77, and is up $6.87 versus a week ago

  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $1.00 on Tue. to $57.54  April futures eased $0.20 but remain $13.285 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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