HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—(5:30 am) Mostly higher: CH, +$.0075; SH, +$.04; WH, -$.0025; KWH, -$.0050
• MACRO:  Trump will supposedly sign funding agreement, seeks other financing sources to fund wall construction; trade talks “progressing”. Asia: Lower--Nikkei, -1.13%; Shanghai, -1.37%; Hang Seng, -1.87%. EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.64%; FTSE, +0.40%; CAC, +0.98%.  WALL STREET: Futures are higher: DOW, +47; S&P, +5.25; NAS, +13.25. EXTERNALS: March crude: +$0.31 @ $54.72; Gold:  +$7.90 @ $1,322;Mar $ Index, +0.115 @ 96.92 
• T-storm Weather: In Brazil, cool fronts flow northward & dissipate every few days over the next 2 weeks, producing widespread coverage of near- & above-normal rainfall of 3.00"-6.00", easing 14- & 30-day dryness through the end of the month.  In Argentina, coolness breaks over the next few days & will be followed by 5-7 days of heat.  Dry weather also dominates over the next week, but followed by scattered thunderstorms over Wed.-Sun. (Feb. 20-24) as a cool front passes & induces cooling

·       CH, up $.0075 @ $3.7550; CK, up $.0075 @ $3.8375.  The funds sold 8 K yesterday     

• SH, up $.04 @ $9.0750; SK, up $.0375 @ $9.2125.  Funds: Sold 6 SB, 5 K SBM & 1 SBO.  Board Crush: $.97, +1; LY, $1.47
• WH, dn $.0025 @ $5.0675; WK, dn $.0025 @ $5.1025.  Rather heavy fund liquidation on Thursday, estimated at 10 K                           ​;      

CORN/SORGHUM

• ​ Consultant: In Brazil, range for 18/19 corn prod. is 87.0-93.0 MMT v. 82.0 MMT last year (USDA).  The state of Parana was dry in Dec-Jan; & there is some concern about dryness impacting early safrinha (double crop) corn development

·       T-storm Weather: In Brazil, near- & above-normal rain is forecast the next two weeks across a wide area, improving soil moisture for safrinha (double crop) corn emergence and early growth.  Rain is needed following recent dryness

·       Export sales of corn for the week ending Jan. 3 were 18.1 mbu; unshipped sales were 513 mbu vs. 613 a year ago

·       The month-to-date 2019 corn base crop insurance price average as of Feb. 14 is $4.0123

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       NOPA crush report to be released at 11:00 am CST.  Avg. trade estimate for January soybean crush is 169.29 mbu

·       Consultant: In Argentina, range for 18/19 soybean production is 53.0-58.0 MMT v. 37.8 MMT last year (USDA). 

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, hot and dry weather impact soybeans over the next week.  A cool front then sweeps northward Feb. 20-21, which results in generalized rainfall of 1.00” to 2.00” by late next week into Feb. 22-24

·       The month-to-date 2019 soybean base crop insurance price average as of Feb. 14 is $9.5673

·       Wheat export sales for the week ending Jan. 3 were 4.8 mbu; unshipped sales were 201 mbu vs. 206 a year ago

·       T-storm Weather: Unseasonable coldness affects U.S. HRW wheat in the Plains the next 2 weeks with occasional snow

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLH19, +$0.31 @ $54.72; EBJ, +$0.36 @ $64.93; EBJ-QCLJ, +$0.06; RBH, +.0090; NGH, +.023; HOH, +0.0117

·       Chicago ethanol was off $.01625 @ $1.35625; basis values mostly firmer: New York, -$.011125 @ $.068758; Gulf, +$.01125 @ $.07375; Dallas, +$.01625 @ $.05375; Tampa, +.02375 @ $.15375; LA, +$.04625 @ $.18375   

·       Ethanol RINs, firmer: 2017’s, +0.75 @ 18 -19 ½; 2018’s,+0.75 @ 18 ½-20; 2019’s, +0.50 @ 21 ¼ - 21 ¾                                      

·       The March RBOB/March ethanol spread widened $.0624 to +$.1825/gal   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY            &n​bsp;                ​          

​
• Choice boxed beef eased 37-cents on Thursday to $216.07, and is down 64-cents versus last week 
• Dressed steer weight for week end Jan. 12: 883 lbs, dn 9 lbs v. last week and down 17 lbs v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.23 on Thursday to $61.48, and is down $2.58 versus a week ago

• CME Lean Hog Index was $0.31 lower on Thu. at $55.24.  April futures declined $1.075, but are $3.46 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather