HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mostly firm: CU, +$.02; SQ, +$.0375; WU, -$.01; KWU, +$.0050     
• What caught my eye:  Interesting Bloomberg story--“less than 4% decline” in Chinese soybean meal production so far this year.  YTD crush (since Sep 1) down just 2.4 MMT/3.7%--aquaculture, more poultry and better hog rations more than offsetting ASF?
• Despite worries of an escalating European trade spat, futures are higher.  Asia: Weaker--Nikkei, -0.53%; Shanghai, -0.94%; Hang Seng, -0.07%. EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.80%; FTSE, +0.73%; CAC, +0.69%.  WALL STREET—Look for a positive start-DOW, +58; S&P, +7.75; NAS, +30.50.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude: +$0.54 @ $56.79; Gold:  +$20.80 @ $1,429; $ Index: +.025 @ 96.751
• T-storm ® Weather: Except for the northern Plains where coolness prevails, temperatures remain considerably warmer than normal until a cool front passes Sat.-Sun. and drops temperatures by ~10°F.  Occasional thunderstorms accompany fluctuating temperatures, resulting in widespread coverage of at least near-normal rainfall, and a moderate probability for above-normal totals across the northern half, especially from thunderstorm clusters over the next five to seven days
• CU, up $.0425 @ $4.2325; CZ, up $.04 @ $4.30.  Fund trading on Tuesday was said to be even, neither net buyers or sellers                       
• SQ, up $.0325 @ $8.83; SU, up $.0325 @ $8.8925.  Funds: Sold 7 K SB, 3 K SBM; 4 K SBO.  Board Crush: $0.96, +3; LY, $1.86 WU, up $.0125 @ $5.0450; WZ, up $.0175 @ $5.1725.  The funds sellers of 10 K

CORN/SORGHUM

• T-storm ® Weather: Brief warming returns to U.S. corn areas early next week, but occurs in advance of a strong cool-off for 3-5 days starting July 10-11; best chances later next week are across southern third to half of the central U.S.
• ATI Research: Near-term U.S. corn export estimate remains 25-35 mbu per week with a bias towards the lower end

·       Consultant: Argentina corn production est. was unch this week at 49.0 MMT with a neutral bias; harvest at 46%

• Ethanol margins: $0.10 per gallon—up vs. $0.02 last week but well below $0.35 in 2018.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• T-storm ® Weather: Brief warming returns to U.S. soybean areas early next week, but occurs in advance of a strong cool-off for 3-5 days starting July 10-11; best chances later next week are across southern third to half of central U.S.
• ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports remains in the 20-30 mbu per week range
• T-storm ® Weather: Rainfall of 1.50”-3.00” is common over next 10-14 days across most U.S. hard red spring wheat
• ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. wheat exports remains in the 15-20 mbu per week range

ENERGY

·       Down: CLQ19, +$0.54 @ $56.79; EBU, +$0.61 @ $63.01; EBU-QCLQ, +.07;RBQ, +.01; NGQ, +.015; HOQ, +.0109

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -3.0 (-5.0); Gasoline, -2.2 (-0.8); Distillates, -1.0 (-1.7).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 1.066 mbpd (range: 1.055-1.080).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 21.405 mb (range 21.292-21.600)

·       Chicago ethanol was a $.0005 firmer yesterday at $1.4880; basis values were mostly firmer: New York, +$.00450 @ $.12450; Gulf, -$.00550 @ $.1070; Dallas, +$.01450 @ $.1120; Tampa, +$.0120 @ $.2220 LA, +$.0020 @ $.2470  

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker:  2018’s, -2.00 @ 19 ½ -22; 2019’s, -1.3750 @ 23 ¾ -25                                             ​                        &​nbsp;        

·       The August RBOB/July ethanol spread tugged in $.0602 on Tuesday to close at$.3837/gal 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    ​;                   

• Choice boxed beef gained was 75-cents higher on Tuesday at $220.47 and is up 83-cents versus last week 
• August feeder cattle futures on Tue. closed at $138.375—the highest settlement price for the contract since June 10

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 16-cents on Tue. to $71.48 but is still down $2.64 vs. a week ago 

·       Since June 10, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value has declined $11.51 (13.9%)              

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

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