HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mixed/firm: CN, -$.0050; SN, +$.0050; WN, +$.08; KWN, +$.06     
• What caught my eye:  Oct-May Chinese SB imports down 17%/ 10.5 MMT; yet, Sep through mid-June soybean crush is reportedly only 3.7%/2.3 MMT lower.  Apparent draw-down in reserve soybean stocks, when/will China begin to rebuild same?
• Deal, or no deal?  Asia: Higher--Nikkei, +1.19%; Shanghai, +0.69%; Hang Seng, +1.42%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.54%; FTSE, +0.15%; CAC, +0.06%. WALL STREET—Futures are higher--DOW, +60 S&P, +11.50; NAS, +39.75. EXTERNALS: Aug crude: -$.37 @ $59.01; Gold:  -$9.70 @ $1,406; $ Index:+.017 @ 96.231
• T-storm Weather: Upper-level high pressure in the central Plains leaves the central U.S. warmer than normal over the next five to seven days as highs reach the mid-80s to mid-90s and lows hold in the 60s-70s.  Scattered thunderstorms occur each day and/or night through Sunday within the northern half of the central U.S.; scattered 0.50”-1.50” totals generally near and north of Interstate 80 with highest totals most likely in/near southern MN and WI, while rainfall will likely be limited with southward extent
• CN, dn $.0025 @ $4.43; CU, unch @ $4.4950.  The funds were modest sellers at mid-week, estimated at 3 K                     
• SN, up $.0050 @ $8.9475; SQ, up $.0075 @ $9.0050.  Funds: sold 5 K SB, 3 K SBM; 2 K SBO.  Board Crush: $0.99, -3; LY, $1.85
• WN, up $.08 @ $5.5175; WU, up $.0675 @ $5.5325.  Fund buying totaled 6 K yesterday         

CORN/SORGHUM

·      Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 6-18 mbu for 18/19 corn

• T-storm Weather: One or two cool fronts pass next week across U.S. corn, most likely leaving temps near normal the first 5-10 days of July.  Some thunderstorms accompany the fronts; best chances in the north, lowest chances south
• Ethanol grind: Total of 1,072,000 barrels/day for week end June 21—dn 9 thou v. prior week but unchanged v. 2018
• Consultant: Brazil corn production estimate is steady at 100.0 MMT with a neutral to slightly higher bias.  The safrinha (double crop) corn harvest is 19% complete compared to 5% last year and 7% for the 5-year average

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Export Sales report.  Trade expects 7-18 mbu for 18/19 soybeans; soymeal, 75-250 K MT; soyoil, 5-25 K MT 

• T-storm Weather: One or two cool fronts pass next week across U.S. soybeans, most likely leaving temps near normal the first 5-10 days of July.  Some thunderstorms accompany the fronts; best chances in north, lowest chances south

·      Export Sales report.  Trade expects 7-18 mbu for 19/20 all wheat

• T-storm Weather: The recent heat wave across winter wheat in western Russia, eastern Ukraine and southeast areas of the European Union breaks through Friday, but shifts further west to/near France and Germany

ENERGY

·      Higher: CLQ19, -$.37 @ $59.01; EBQ, -$0.49 @ $66.00; EBQ-QCLQ, -.13; RBQ, -.0172; NGQ, +.004; HOQ, -.0096

·      Chicago ethanol lost $.0170 Wednesday to $1.57375; basis values were mostly firm: New York, +$.0070 @ $.12625; Gulf, +$.0145 @ $.11625; Dallas, -$.0080 @ $.10125; Tampa, +$.0070 @ $.22625; LA, +$.0070 @ $.22625  

·      Ethanol RINs were firmer:  2018’s, +1.1250 @ 21 ½ -23 ¾; 2019’s, +1.125 @ 25 -26 ¾                                  &​nbsp;                        <​wbr>                   

​ ·      The July RBOB/July ethanol spread surged $.1062 to $.4034/gal 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp; 

• Choice boxed beef firmed 6-cents on Wednesday to $219.70 but is still down $1.89 versus last week   
• USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report 2:00 pm CDT: avg. trade est. for all hogs & pigs, 103.0% (range: 101.9%-106.0%)

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.43 on Wed. to $72.69 and is $3.78 lower versus a week ago

·      CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.40 on Wed. to $77.91.  July futures were $0.850 lower and are $4.36 below the index              

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

​