HIGHLIGHTS

​

• TRENDS—Mixed:  CZ, +$.0125; SX, +$.0350; WZ, -$.0250; KWZ, -$.0150. Dely: SM, 340; BO, 43; RR, 28; C, 686; ETOH, 22: HRW, 28; SB, 580; SRW, 36
• What caught my eye: IF USDA #’s are right, the Mid-South should be deficit nearly 140 mbu in storage capacity and have double the exportable surplus of last year, just at a time when the U.S. is facing a very weak SON Gulf export outlook 

·       Aug non-farm payroll data & unemployment are the morning’s focus.  ASIA: Up--Nikkei, 0.54%; Shanghai, +0.46%; Hang Seng, +0.66%.  EUROPE: Mostly weaker—DAX, +0.28%; FTSE, -0.16; CAC, -0.03%.  WALL STREET—Futures are positive-- DOW, +72; S&P, +7.25; NAS, +10.75.  EXTERNALS: Nov crude: -$0.81 @ $55.35; Gold:  -$10 @ $1,516; $ Index: +.04 @ 98.450

·       T-storm Weather®: A stormy period affects the central U.S. over the next 10 days as a sharp temperature gradient helps thunderstorms to occasionally affect a wide area from this weekend forward, producing heavy totals of 1.25” to 2.50” across much of the central / northern Plains and northwest two-thirds of the Corn Belt.  A cooler period follows, but a killing freeze is not expected for corn and soybeans

• CZ, up $.0125 @ $3.60; CH, up $.01 @ $3.7275.  The funds were buyers of 2 K, RFS optimism    
• SX, up $.0350 @ $8.65; SF, up $.03 @ $8.7850.  Funds: Sold 7 K SB, 5 K SBM, 6 K SBO.  Board Crush: $0.91, +1; LY, $1.58
• WZ, dn $.0250 @ $4.6375; WH, dn $.0225 @ $4.7025.  The funds were again buyers of 5 K                      

​ CORN/SORGHUM

·   &n​bsp;   Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 0-4 mbu for 18/19 corn and 20-31 mbu for 19/20

• T-storm Weather®: scattered rain occurs Sat.-Sun. in the Dakotas & northwest half of the U.S. Corn Belt; 0.25”-0.75” in/near IA, MN, NE, & the Dakotas.  A stormy period follows Sep. 9-15 within northwest two-thirds of the central U.S.
• ATI Research: Sluggish development of the 2019 U.S. corn crop is reflected in crop progress.  Corn dented on average increases 14% over Sep. 1-8 to approx. 77%; however, corn dented this year as of Sep. 1 was only at 41%

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 1,013,000 barrels/day for week end Aug. 30—dn 25 thou v. prior week and 6.8% lower v. 2018

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects (6) - 4 mbu for 18/19 soybeans and 7-22 for 19/20; soymeal, 25-75 K MT for 18/19 and 100-250 for 19/20; soyoil, 0-20 K MT for 18/19 and 0-8 for 19/20 

• T-storm Weather®: a cooler period occurs in 1-2 weeks, but there is little chance for a killing freeze in U.S. soybeans

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 15-29 mbu for 19/20 all wheat

• T-storm Weather®: at least near-normal rainfall is forecast over Sep. 7-13 for all un-harvested U.S. HRS wheat

ENERGY

· ​;      Weak: CLX19, -$0.81 @ $55.35; EBX, -$0.46 @ $60.49; EBX-QCLX, +.32; RBX, -.0210; NGX, -.029; HOX, -.0242

·       Chicago ethanol again slightly firm, up $.00125 to $1.32125; basis values were mixed:  NYC, +$.01375 @ $.13875; Gulf, -$.00625 @ $.10375; Dallas, -$.00125 @ $.11375; Tampa, -$.00125 @ $.22875; LA, +$.00875 @ $.22875

·       Ethanol RINs were mixed with 2018’s off .50  @ 7 -9 ½ and 2019’s up 1.50 @ 16 -18 ½                                &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;          

​

·       The October RBOB/October ethanol spread narrowed $.0189 to $.2230/gal yesterday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                   &nb​sp;                   

​

• Choice boxed beef was $1.23 lower on Thursday at $229.42 and is down $2.77 versus a week ago 
• October live cattle futures on Thursday posted a contract low of $97.175 and settled $1.15 lower at $97.875

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.27 on Thu. to $71.83 but is still up $1.07 versus last week  

·       CME Lean Hog Index eased $1.32 on Thu. at $65.25.  October futures fell $0.825 but are still $1.05 above the index                         <​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr><​wbr>  ​;                

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather