HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mixed:  CZ, -$.0025; SX, +$.0325; WZ, -$.0025; KWZ, +$.0025.  Del’y: SB, 1,425; RR, 110 

·      What caught my eye:  Rising internal prices in Brazil may result in previously made export commitments being cancelled and sold back into particularly the feed sector.  Suggests hope for an up-turn in U.S. exports, although Ukraine could be a potential supplier

·      China’s October factory output posts best gain in over 2 years.  ASIA: Mostly firm--Nikkei, -0.33%; Shanghai, +0.99%; Hang Seng, +0.72%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.29%; FTSE, +0.33%; CAC, +0.32%.  WALL STREET—Futures are higher-- DOW, +51; S&P, +5.75; NAS, +19.00.  EXTERNALS: Dec crude: +$0.27 @ $54.45; Gold: -$0.80 @ $1,514; $ Index: -.025 @ 97.327

• T-storm Weather®: temps remain much colder than normal over the next 10-14 days as Arctic cold fronts pass every few days.  Light rain & snow showers accompany cold over the next week, especially within northern half of central U.S., preventing ideal conditions from unfolding for harvest in Dakotas, MN, WI & MI.  Significant precip is not expected elsewhere until an Arctic front passes Mon.-Tue. & produces some light rain & snow showers within Delta & southeast half of Corn Belt, including wettest areas
• CZ, dn $.0025 @ $3.8975; CH, dn $.0075 @ $3.98.  Funds sell 3 K on Thursday                  
• SX, up $.0325 @ $9.20; SF, up $.0150 @ $9.3375.  Funds: Bot 1 K SB; 2 K SBM & sold 4 K SBO.  Board Crush: $0.91, +1; LY, $1.25
• WZ, dn $.0025 @ $5.0850; WH, dn $.0025 @ $5.1450.  The funds were net even in yesterday’s trading               

CORN/SORGHUM

·      The final 2019 crop insurance harvest price for December 2019 corn futures is $3.8977

• T-storm Weather®: increased rain & snow chances re-develop later next week & weekend across the southeast half of the central U.S., most likely bringing substantial totals to the Delta & southeast half of the Corn Belt within Nov. 8-12

·      ATI Research: unshipped 19/20 export sales of U.S. corn as of Oct. 24 of 306 mbu are dn 38% from 464 mbu in 2018.    However, the sales pace has picked up recently; e.g. this week’s sales of 21.6 mbu were 29% above the 4-week avg.

·      Consultant: to achieve high safrinha (double crop) corn yields in Brazil, planting must be as early as possible & it looks like that will not occur in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• The final 2019 crop insurance harvest price for November 2019 soybean futures is $9.2498

·      ATI Research: unshipped 19/20 export sales of U.S. soybeans as of Oct. 24 were 416 mbu— down 19% vs. a year ago

• T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, most soybean areas will be fairly dry over the next five days, followed by an uptick in thunderstorms from Mon.-Wed. forward, though only near- and below-normal rainfall are expected.

·      ATI Research: unshipped 19/20 export sales of U.S. all wheat of 155 mbu are dn 12% v. the 5-year avg. & a 4-year low

·      T-storm Weather®: agricultural drought across wheat in southern Argentina continues into at least mid-November

ENERGY

·      Firm: CLZ19, +$0.27 @ $54.45; EBF, +$0.22 @ $59.84; EBF-QCLF, -.08; RBZ, +.0062; NGZ,&n​bsp;-.048; HOZ, +.0072

·      Chicago ethanol edged up $.0075 to $1.5175/gal; basis values were mostly lower:  NYC, -$.0025 @ +$.1025; Gulf, +$.0025 @ +$.0725; Dallas, -$.0025 @ +.0925; Tampa, -$.0075 @ +$.1975; LA, -$.0075 @ +$.2475

·       Ethanol RINs were +/-/unch: 2018’s, unch @ 5 ½ -6 ½; 2019’s, -.1250 @ 14 ¾ -15; 2020’s, +.25 @ 24 ½ -25  ½                             <​wbr>                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                      

·      The November RBOB/November ethanol spread shed $.0724 as it narrowed to $.1626/gallon  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​                &nbs​p;          

​ ·      Choice boxed beef was $2.13 higher on Thursday at $232.18 and is up $6.56 compared to a week ago     

• Some cash cattle trade took place on Thu. in Kansas at $112.00, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted avg.

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased $1.13 on Thu. to $75.72 and is up $2.15 versus last week

·      CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.39 on Thu. to $62.74.  December futures firmed $0.225 and are $3.26 above the index               

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®