HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mixed:  CU, -$.02; SQ, +$.0275; WU, -$.0375; KWU, -$.0425. Del’y: SB: 1,131; SBM: 572; SBO: 213
• What caught my eye: China Ag Attache cuts 18/19 & 19/20 SB importsTHREE and SEVEN MMT, down to 82 and 80 million, respectively.  Average bean crops in S AM this year should result in exports of 85.8 million

·       Volatility over trade war continues as the 2 powers exchange punches.  Asia: Lower--Nikkei, -0.65%; Shanghai, -1.56%; Hang Seng, -2.44%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.56%; FTSE, +0.08%; CAC, +0.86%. WALL STREET—Futures, hoping to rebound: DOW, +196; S&P, +23.25;NAS, +69.25.  EXTERNALS: Oct crude: +$,.18 @ $54.76; Gold:  -$.10 @$1,476; $ Index: +.010 @ 97.532

·       T-storm Weather®: Near- to below-normal temps affect most corn, soybeans, and spring wheat over the next two weeks as the central U.S. remains divided by heat to the immediate southwest and coolness to the northeast.  Scattered thunderstorms occur in varying areas at varying times, resulting in near-normal rainfall in most areas over the next two weeks.  Rain would be most beneficial in IL, IN, IA, and MI where at least 50% of corn and soybean production were drier than normal over the last 30 days

• CU, dn $.02 @ $4.0325; CZ, dn $.02 @ $4.1275.  The Funds began the week purchasing 5 K    
• SQ, up $.0275 @ $8.53; SU, up $.0125 @ $8.5725.  Funds: Bot 3 K SB, 2 K SBM, sold 3 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.05, +1 LY, $1.53
• WU, dn $.0375 @ $4.9075; WZ, dn $.0375 @ $4.91.  The Funds sold 2 K on Monday      

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·       U.S. corn crop is rated 57% Good/Excellent, down a point vs. last week and below  71% last year.  Crop development remains well behind normal: corn dough is at 23% vs. 54% last year & the 5-year avg. of 42%

·       ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2019 U.S. corn crop is 167.2 bpa versus July USDA projection of 166.0.  U.S. corn ending stocks for 19/20 are now forecast at 1.311bbu

• T-storm Weather®: Across the central U.S., most likely scenario remains for scattered thunderstorms to affect a wide area through today as a cool front passes, producing scattered 0.25”-0.75” totals with higher totals of ~1.00” in MN

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybean crop rated 54% Good/Excellent, unchanged vs. last week but below 67% last year.  Blooming is at 72% v. 91% last year & the 5-year avg. of 87%, while setting pods is at 37% v. 73% last year & the 5-year avg. of 63%

·       ATI Research: Updated yield est. for 2019 U.S. soybean crop is 47.4 bpa vs. July USDA projection of 48.5.  U.S. soybean ending stocks for 19/20 are now forecast at 643 mbu

• ATI Research: U.S. hard red spring wheat crop est. was unchanged at 559 mbu.  Harvest is at 2% vs. 12% last year and the five-year avg. of 14%.  U.S. winter wheat harvest: 82% vs. 89% last year and 92% for the five-year avg. 
• T-storm Weather®: Drought intensifies over next 7-10 days across Australia wheat

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLV19, +$0.18 @ $54.76; EBV, +$0.15 @ $59.97; EBV-QCLV, -.06; RBV,+.0027; NGV, +.025; HOV, +.0038

·       Chicago ethanol slipped $.01125 firmer Monday to $1.4575; basis values were mixedr: NYC, +$.00625 @ $.1075; Gulf, -$.01375 @ $.0875; Dallas, +$.00875 @ $.13750; Tampa, +$.01125 @ $.2525; LA, +$.01625 @ $.21750

·       Ethanol RINs recaptured the $.0075 lost Friday, with 2018’s @ 16 ¼ -16 ¾ and 2019’s @ 20 ¼ -20 ¾                                         ​                        &​nbsp;                    

<​p> ·       The September RBOB/August ethanol spread tightend $.0665 yesterday to $.2700/gallon  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                   ​    

• Choice boxed beef eased 3-cents on Monday to $214.70 but is still up $1.44 versus last week  
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price gained $0.14 v. last week to $113.82/cwt and is $0.84 higher v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 22-cents on Mon. to $86.40 and is $3.72 higher versus a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.04 on Mon. to $84.68.  August futures firmed $1.575 but are $6.83 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather