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TRENDS Mixed CK, Up 2, SK, Up 5, WK, Up 1

March 4, 2019 06:51 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS—Mixed: CK, 1 ¼; SK, +3 ½; WK, -1 ½; KWH, -1 ¾. Dely: SBM, 236; SBO, 733; RR, 24; C, 2267; HRW, 86; O,2 SB, 545; SRW, 553
  • What caught my eye:  Market higher as hopes escalate for a China/U.S. trade agreement in the near future
  • Asia: Up-Nikkei, +1.02%; Shanghai, +1.12%; Hang Seng, +0.51%. EUROPE: Up—DAX, +0.09%; FTSE, +0.47%; CAC, +0.47%.  WALL STREET: Futures are higher: DOW, +68; S&P, +7.25; NAS, +31.00.  EXTERNALS: April crude: +$0.35 @ $56.15; Gold:  -$10.80 @ $1,289; Mar $ Index,+0.085 @ 96.535.  2018 GDP up 2.9%, market likes the growth numbers
  • Weather: In Brazil, mostly dry conditions are forecast today for soybeans in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul.  A few light showers with locally heavier amounts are forecast for Tue. and Wed.  Temperatures average near to above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s F.  In Argentina, mostly dry conditions are forecast today for La Pampa and South Buenos.  Mostly dry weather is forecast for Tue., with scattered light to moderate showers on Wed.  Temperatures vary somewhat during this period

·      CK, up $.0125 @ $3.7425; CN, up $.0150 @ $3.83.  The funds were again sellers on Friday, estimated at 5 K          

  • SK, up $.0350 @ $9.15; SN, up $.03 @ $9.2850.  Funds: sold 4 SB, 4 SBM, bot 1 SBO.  Board Crush: $.97, 0; LY, $1.49
  • WK, down $.0150 @ $4.5575; WN, down $.0125 @ $4.62.  Fund selling on Friday, 5 K   

CORN/SORGHUM

·      May corn futures on Fri. traded $3.66—lowest price for the contract since Sep. 20—but closed up $0.0225 at $3.73

·      Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 54.4 mbu needed; 29.6 last week.  Milo—2.5 needed; 1.1 last week

·      Consultant: In Argentina, aggregate corn production potential remains high although there is still some concern entering this week about dry conditions in southern growing areas

  • Weather: In Argentina, a variable temperature pattern and some scattered shower activity will favor filling corn in central and southern areas during the next five days

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      May soybean futures on Fri. traded $9.0050—lowest price for contract since Dec. 28—but closed +$0.015 at $9.1150

·      Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 35.4 mbu needed; 48.0 last week

·      Weather: While locally heavy showers in Brazil may develop this week, there are no significant concerns for widespread coverage of above-normal rainfall that would result in extensive delays in soybean harvest

·      KC HRW May wheat futures on Friday made a contract low of $4.3250, but closed $0.0025 higher at $4.4475

·      Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Wheat, 28.3 mbu needed; 25.5 last week

ENERGY

·      Higher: CLJ19+$0.35 @ $56.15; EBK, +$0.56 @ $65.63; EBK-QCLK, +$0.18; RBJ, +.0170; NGJ, -.004HOJ, +0.0164

·      Chicago ethanol gained a ½ cent Friday to $1.3337;  basis, steady/weak: New York, unch @ $.11875; Gulf, -$.00500 @ $.10125; Dallas, -$.0050 @ $.10125; Tampa, -.0050 @ $.21625; LA, unch @ $.20625   

·      Ethanol RINs, weaker: 2017’s, -0.25 @ 17 -18 ½; 2018’s,-0.75 @ 18 -19 ½; 2019’s, -0.75 @ 20 – 21 ½                                      ​;     

·      The April RBOB/March ethanol spread widened $.09 on Friday to+$.3923/gallon     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                         &nbs​p;              

  • ​ Choice boxed beef was $1.34 higher on Friday at $221.29, and is up $1.90 versus the previous week
  • Cash cattle trade developed on Friday with live prices marked at $128, which is $2 higher than the previous week

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 38-cents on Friday to $60.00, & is $2.84 higher versus a week ago

  • CME Lean Hog Index declined $0.51 on Fri. to $52.13.  April futures firmed $0.525 and are $4.27 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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