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TRENDS Mixed CK, Up 2, SK, Up 4, WK, Down 3

April 15, 2019 07:01 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS—Mixed: CK, +$.02; SK, +$.0325; WK, -$.0250; KWK, -$.03 
  • What caught my eye: forecasts have unsettled weather/storms systems developing every three to five days across the Central U.S. through the end of April and mostly likely into early May 
  • Growth concerns/trade issues cap gains.  Asia: Mostly weaker--Nikkei, +1.37%; Shanghai, -0.34%; Hang Seng, -0.33%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.23%; FTSE, +0.13%; CAC, +0.28%.  WALL STREET—Futures are mostly firm--DOW, +37; S&P, +1.00; NAS, -1.75.  EXTERNALS: June crude: -$.58 @ $63.44;Gold:  +$4.10 @ $1,297; $ Index-.163 @ 95.395
  • T-storm Weather: Mainly dry & sharply warmer weather are forecast for the Corn Belt on Mon. & Tue.  Thereafter, a strong system produces rain & thunderstorms across the Corn Belt & Delta over Wed.-Fri. where 0.75” to 1.50” falls & rain lingers longest, while scattered 0.25” to 0.75” totals affect the Plains; wettest with eastward extent & in the Dakotas.  After a few days of drying, the next system is probable to affect northern half of the Plains Apr. 21-23, bringing at least some rain to the Dakotas
  • CK, up $.02 @ $3.63; CN, up $.0250 @ $3.72.  Fund buying on Friday totaled 1 K  
  • SK, up $.0325 @ $8.9850; SN, up $.0325 @ $9.12.  Funds: 0 SB, bot 1 SBM & sold 1 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.01, +2; LY, $1.34
  • WK, down $.0250 @ $4.62; WN, dn $.03 @ $4.6550.  The funds were said to be buyers of 3 K on Friday                 

CORN/SORGHUM

·      Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 51.9 mbu needed; 40.8 last week.  Milo—2.1 needed; 0.65 last week

·      T-storm Weather: A much larger and stronger system is probable to move across the central U.S. within next Wed.-Sun. (April 24-28), producing rain within a wide area

·      ATI Research: Trade ideas for today’s U.S. corn planting progress are ~3% vs. 3% in 2018 and the five-year avg. of 5%

·      Consultant: In Argentina, corn yields continue to be good in the core production areas as harvest begins to move into the latter stages; harvest is just getting underway in the more southern and northern locations

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 36.5 mbu needed; 32.6 last week

·      Consultant: In Argentina, soybean yields continue to be good as harvest begins to gain momentum

·      T-storm Weather: A much larger and stronger system is probable to move across the central U.S. within next Wed.-Sun. (April 24-28), producing rain within a wide area

  • Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 29.1 mbu needed; 19.8 last week
  • T-storm Weather: A total of 44% of U.S. HRW wheat received less than half of normal precip over the last 14 days

ENERGY

·      Lower:  CLM19-$.58 @ $63.44; EBM, -0.50 @ $71.05; EBM-QCLM, +.07; RBM, -.0208; NGM, -.020HOM, -.0193

·      Chicago ethanol rose $.00125 on Friday to $1.3225; basis, mixed: New York, -$.01625 @ $.1375; Gulf, -$.00125 @ $.10250; Dallas, +$.00875 @ $.11250; Tampa, +$.01375 @ $.2275; LA, +$.00375 @ $.3875   

·      Ethanol RINs were firmer/unchanged:  2018’s, +0.25 @ 11 -13; 2019’s, unch @ 17 -18                                           ​;           

·      The May RBOB/May ethanol spread widened slightly, +$.0131 to+$.7070/gallon    

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                     ​;                   

  • Choice boxed beef was 8-cents lower on Friday at $228.75, but is still up $1.82 versus last week 
  • August feeder cattle futures on Friday closed at $158.70, the highest settlement price for the contract since March 22

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased $1.12 on Fri. to $84.46, & is up $3.90 compared to a week ago

  • CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.02 on Fri. to $79.34.  May futures increased $1.20 and are $10.26 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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