HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Mixed: CK, -1 ¼; SK, +4 ¾; WK, -3 ¾; KWH,-3 ½. Dely: SBM-322; SBO-138;  RR-4 C-1398; HRW-7; SB-518; SRW-108
• What caught my eye:  What will USDA do with both corn and soybean exports tomorrow?  Some key indicators for each are at multi-year lows and then there is the China trade agreement uncertainty 
• Asia: Mostly lower-Nikkei, -0.65%; Shanghai, +0.14%; Hang Seng, -0.89%.  EUROPE: Weaker—DAX, -0.55%; FTSE, -0.54%; CAC, -0.51%. WALL STREET: Futures are weaker: DOW, -78; S&P, -5.75; NAS, -14.75. EXTERNALS: April crude: +$0.56 @ $56.780; Gold:  -$0.50 @ $1,287;Mar $ Index, +0.031 @ 96.830.  U.S. December trade deficit hit a 10-year high
• T-storm Weather: In Brazil, scattered thunderstorms occur over the next 14 days in varying areas at varying times, ultimately producing widespread coverage of near- and above-normal rain of 2.00”-4.00”.  Rain occasionally slows harvesting of first-crop corn and soybeans but maintains adequate soil moisture for safrinha (double crop) corn into late-month.  In Argentina, a system passes today-Friday & triggers another round of heavy thunderstorms across a wide area, producing another 1.25”-2.50” of rain

·       CK, down $.0125 @ $3.7125; CN, down $.01 @ $3.80.  Funds were heavy sellers, 15 K yesterday          

• SK, up $.0475 @ $9.0675; SN, dn $.0475 @ $9.2050.  Funds: Sold 8 SB, 6 SBM, 5 SBO.  Board Crush: $.99, +1; LY, $1.32
• WK, down $.0375 @ $4.650; WN, down $.0275 @ $4.5275.  Funds selling at mid-week, 8 K

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales report at 7:30 am CST for the week ending Feb. 28; trade expects 28-43 mbu for 2018/19 corn sales

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, heavy rain this week further erodes dryness & improves soil moisture for late-corn (except far south).  Cool temps follow for 5 days, resulting in stress-free conditions for most corn through mid-month

• Consultant: In Argentina, corn in the south remains short on moisture with some areas experiencing a frost last week.  However, there is not much corn in this area and yield potential is generally much lower than in central Argentina

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 1,024,000 barrels/day for week end March 1—down 0.4% v. prior week and down 3.1% v. 2018

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report at 7:30 am CST for the week ending Feb. 28; trade expects 22-37 mbu for 2018/19 soybean sales

·       Consultant: The weather in Brazil started to improve about mid-January, which has benefited later maturing soybeans

·       T-storm Weather: Soybeans in northeast Brazil would benefit from additional rain, but harvest is quickly approaching

·       Export Sales report at 7:30 am CST for the week ending Feb. 28; trade expects 7-18 mbu for 2018/19 wheat sales

·       T-storm Weather: In the U.S., much colder-than-normal temperatures over the next two weeks leave HRW wheat dormant much longer than is normal.  Heavy rain (2.25”-4.00”) over the next week occurs across SRW wheat in Delta 

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLJ19, +$0.56 @ $56.78; EBK, +$0.72 @ $65.71; EBK-QCLK, +$0.19; RBJ, +.0232; NGJ, -.006; HOJ, +0.0159

·       Chicago ethanol was off $.01125 @ $1.3250; basis, mixed: New York, -$.00125 @ $.11500; Gulf, +$.00750 @ $.1050; Dallas, +$.00125 @ $.1150; Tampa, +.00625 @ $.23; LA, -$.01375@ $.19   

·       Ethanol RINs, weaker: 2017’s, +0.875 @ 17 -18; 2018’s,-0.6250 @ 18-19 1/2; 2019’s, -0.500 @ 21– 21 ½                          &​nbsp;                  

&m​iddot;       The April RBOB/April ethanol spread widened $.0126  to +$.4450/gallonon Thursday      

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY          ​                     &nbs​p;       

• Choice boxed beef increased 89-cents on Wednesday to $224.93, and is $5.47 higher compared to a week ago
• Estimates for March 8 USDA Cattle on Feed: Feb. 1 on feed, 100.2%; Placed in Jan, 92.6%; Marketed in Jan, 102.3%

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 33-cents on Wed. to $61.49, and is up $3.70 versus last week

• CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.09 on Wed. to $51.85.  April futures fell $0.825 but are still $5.225 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather