HIGHLIGHTS
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TRENDS—Lower: CZ, -$.01; SX, -$.0225; WZ, -$.03; KWZ, -$.0350. Dely (09/10): SM, 96; BO, 60; RR, 63; C, 241; ETOH, 0: HRW, 3 SB, 226; SRW, 23
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What caught my eye: China will allow soybean meal imports from Argentina, the world’s largest exporter of meal. The latter typically crushes 43 +/- MMT annually, subject to crop size and exports 25-30 million. Key ? will be what this does to SBO imports
· China: no tariff increases on some U.S. goods for a year. ASIA: Mostly higher--Nikkei, +0.96%; Shanghai, -0.41%; Hang Seng, +1.78%. EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.76%; FTSE, +0.87%; CAC, +0.41%. WALL STREET—Futures are mostly firm-- DOW, +37; S&P, +1; NAS, -1. EXTERNALS: Nov crude: +$0.64 @ $57.93; Gold: +$1.40 @ $1,501; $ Index: +.192 @ 98.518
· T-storm Weather®: In the central U.S., heavy rain affects the northern half through Thursday, followed by 5-7 consecutive days of drying before some rains return & affect a wider area; temps remain unseasonably warm over the next 10 days, followed by a cooler period. In Brazil, significant rainfall is not foreseen away from Rio Grande do Sul over the next 10-14 days, limiting planting because widespread agricultural drought already exists. Rains will also remain limited on dry Argentina sunflower & wheat areas
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CZ, dn $.015 @ $3.6050; CH, dn $.015 @ $3.7350. The funds bought 15 K on Tuesday
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SX, dn $.0225 @ $8.6975; SF, dn $.0250 @ $8.8325. Funds: Bot 7 K SB, 5 K SBM, & 4 2 K SBO. Board Crush: $0.87, -5; LY, $1.66
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WZ, dn $.03 @ $4.7925; WH, dn $.03 @ $4.8450. The funds bought 4
CORN/SORGHUM
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T-storm Weather®: temps fluctuate but average much warmer than normal for U.S. corn the next 10 days as upper-level high pressure leaves highs in 70s-80s and lows in 50s most days, except for cooler reading in & adjacent ND
· ATI Research: Combined export sales of old- and new-crop U.S. corn over the past month are averaging a miniscule 18.6 per week, which is about half of the 5-year avg. Only one year in the past 20 has been that low—17.9 in 2012
· Ethanol margins: $0.14 per gallon—up vs. $0.08 last week but below $0.18 in 2018. EIA report at 9:30 am CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
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T-storm Weather®: a killing freeze with lows of 28°F/-2°C or colder is not foreseen for U.S. soybeans the next 2 weeks
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ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports remains 30-40 mbu per week
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T-storm Weather®: heavy rain (1.25”-2.50”) across northern half of central U.S. through Thu. stops HRS wheat harvest
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ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. all wheat exports remains 17-23 mbu per week
ENERGY
· Firm: CLX19, +$0.64 @ $57.93; EBX, +$0.57 @ $62.95; EBX-QCLX, -.04; RBX, +.0186; NGX, +.015; HOX, +.0138
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -2.4 (-7.2); Gasoline, -0.9 (-4.5); Distillates, -0.1 (+0.6). Estimates for ethanol production avg. 1.019 mbpd (range: 1.015-1.023). Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 23.479 mb (range 23.000-23.739)
· Chicago ethanol was up $.02275 to $1.33275; basis values were firmer: NYC, +$.02875 @ $.1650; Gulf, +$.02250 @ $.13; Dallas, +$.0150 @ $.13; Tampa, +$.01 @ $.24; LA, +$.0150 @ $.25
· Ethanol RINs were lower: 2018’s, -.3750 at @ 8 -8 ¼; 2019’s off .6250 @ 17 -18    
· The October RBOB/October ethanol spread tugged in $.0148 to $.25980 Tuesday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY <wbr><wbr><wbr> ;
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Choice boxed beef declined $1.57 on Tuesday to $225.38 and is $5.28 lower versus last week
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Week-to-week declines in choice boxed beef have been seen for 12 consecutive trading days
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 58-cents on Tue. to $71.30 but is still $1.80 lower vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.76 on Tue. to $62.99. October futures gained $0.125 but are still $0.265 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
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