HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Lower: CU, -$.0750; SQ, -$.0450; WU, -$.0850; KWU, -$.0550      
• What caught my eye: As measured by exports, global Soybean Meal Equivalent (SME) trade up an impressive 4.6% through June—15% (9.7 MMT) increase in Non-PRC destinations more than compensating for a 6% (3.4 MMT) decline for China
• Market awaits Fed Chair Powell’s testimony Wednesday.  Asia: Mostly Lower--Nikkei, +0.14%; Shanghai, -0.18%; Hang Seng, -0.76%.  EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -1.06%; FTSE, -0.20%; CAC, -0.49%.  WALL STREET—Futures are lower-DOW, -112; S&P, -12.25; NAS, -42.75.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude: +$0.48@ $58.14; Gold:  -$9.70 @ $1,390; $ Index: +.130 @ 97.514
• T-storm ® Weather: A sharply warmer period begins Fri.-Sat. as upper-level high pressure begins to bounce within the central U.S., producing maximums in the mid-80s to upper-90s and holding minimums in the 70s for an extended period.  Occasional thunderstorms form in the north with this setup, but coverage and amounts diminish with southward to leave at least the southern half of the central U.S. much drier than normal over the next two weeks
• CU, dn $.0750 @ $4.32; CZ, dn $.0750 @ $4.3625.  Fund selling on Monday was estimated at 2 K
• SQ, dn $.0450 @ $8.7450; SU, dn $.05 @ $8.8025  Funds: Bot 2 K SB, even SBM, Bot 3 K SBO Board Crush: $1.00, +2; LY, $1.87
• WU, dn $.0850 @ $5.0250; WZ, dn $.0825 @ $5.1450.  The funds began the week by selling 1 K

CORN/SORGHUM

·       USDA WASDE report on July 11: Avg. trade guess 18/19 U.S. corn carryout, 2.179 bbu; avg. guess 19/20, 1.642 bbu

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. guess for 18/19 Brazil corn, 100.9 MMT (range 99.7-102.0); Argentina, 49.2 (48.8-50.0)

• USDA Crop Progress report pegs U.S. corn silking at 8% compared to 34% for last year and & the 5-year avg. of 22%. Good/Excellent crop ratings are 57%, which is up one point vs. last week but well below 75% in 2018

·       T-storm ® Weather: Seasonable to slightly cool weather dominate through today; temps then fall by ~10°F Wed.-Thu.  Scattered thunderstorms affect the northwest half of the central U.S. through Wed.

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA WASDE report on July 11: Avg. trade guess 18/19 U.S. soybean carryout, 1.038 bbu; avg. guess 19/20, 0.812 bbu

·       USDA WASDE: Avg. guess 18/19 Brazil soybeans, 117.0 MMT (range 116.0-118.0); Argentina, 56.1 (55.8-57.0)

• USDA Crop Progress report pegs U.S. soybean planting at 96% vs. 92% last week, 100% last year & 5-year avg. of 99%.  Good/Excellent crop ratings are 53%, which is down a point versus last week and well below 71% in 2018

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess 19/20 U.S. all wheat carryout, 1.028 bbu (range 0.925-1.092)

·       USDA July 11 Crop Production report: Avg. guess 2019 U.S. Other Spring wheat prod. is 0.581 bbu (range 0.550-0.625)

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLQ19, +$0.48 @ $58.14; EBU, +$0.57 @ $64.68; EBU-QCLQ, +.06;RBQ, +.0291; NGQ, -.007; HOQ, +.0132

·       Chicago ethanol lost $.0175 on Monday to $1.5075; Wed  basis values were steady/firmeased: NYC, +$.0325 @ $.1325; Gulf, unch @ $.10; Dallas, +$.0075 @ $.1075; Tampa, +$.0175 @ $.2175; LA, +$.0425 @ $.2725  

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker Wednesday:  2018’s, -0.75 @ 19 -21; 2019’s, -0.8750 @ 23 -24                                 &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                    

​ ·       The August RBOB/August ethanol spread eased $.0082 on Monday to close at$.3903/gal 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                 &nbs​p;     

• Choice boxed beef eased 21-cents on Monday to $217.46 and is $2.26 lower versus last week
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was up $1.11 v. last week at $111.24/cwt, but is dn $1.39 v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.42 on Mon. to $71.04 and is 28-cents lower compared to last week 

·         Current nearby board hog crush value is $42.95/cwt vs. last week’s $42.30, last month’s $52.51 & last year’s $43.45                             ​

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

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