HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Lower: CN, $.0225; SN, -$.0625; WN, -$.0125; KWN, -$.0250 
• What caught my eye: Trade will pay particular attention to corn planting progress this afternoon and weather outlook for rest of week to see if USDA’s unchanged yield assumption warranted.  Del’y: SBM, 4; SBO, 137; RR, 0; C, 114; O, 2; SB, 315; SRW, 5
• DOW futures point to a triple digit decline, eyes possible China retaliation.  Asia:  Lower--Nikkei, -0.72%; Shanghai, -1.21%; Hang Seng, Closed.  EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.66%; FTSE, 0%; CAC, -0.53%.  WALL STREET—Sharply lower--DOW, -279; S&P, -33; NAS, -117.50.  EXTERNALS: June crude: +$0.82 @ $62.48; Gold:  -$3.40 @ $1,284; $ Index: NA
• T-storm Weather: Coolness in the U.S. breaks from west to east through Wednesday with highs reaching the 70s-80s across a wide area going forward.  Through Thursday, small-scale waves of energy produce pockets of showers and a few thunderstorms within a wide swath of / near the Corn Belt and northern Plains as the warm-up begins, producing 0.20” to 0.70” within a wide area; driest overall today, then showers become more numerous 
• CN, dn $.0225 @ $3.4950; CU, dn $.02 @ $3.59.  Funds sold 10,000 K Friday on a bearish WASDE release       
• SN, dn $.0625 @ $8.03; SQ, dn $.0650 @ $8.0925.  Funds: Sold 5 SB, 3 SBM, bought 2 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.18, +2; LY, $1.74
• WN, dn $.0125 @ $4.2350; WU, dn $.02 @ $4.3175.  The funds were again sellers of 8 K Friday                   

CORN/SORGHUM

• Mi​xed ideas on U.S. corn planting progress; some believe it could be near 37% v. 59% last year & 5-year avg. of 66%
• T-storm Weather: In the U.S., a classic setup for heavy rain begins May 17-21. First rounds of rain form in northern & western halves of central U.S. Fri.-Sun.  Thunderstorms then reach Southeast half of the Corn Belt & Delta May 19-20
• ATI Research: USDA in Friday’s Supply/Demand report raised 2018/19 South American corn production by 6.0 MMT; Brazil up 4.0 to 100.0, Argentina 2.0 higher at 49.0.  U.S. exports may struggle to reach USDA forecast of 2.300 bbu

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 52.8 mbu needed; 38.5 last week.  Milo—2.2 needed; 0.95 last week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• Mixed ideas on U.S. soybean planting progress; some believe it will be 12% v. 32% last year & the 5-year avg. of 29%
• T-storm Weather: In the U.S., a classic setup for heavy rain begins May 17-21. First rounds of rain form in northern & western halves of central U.S. Fri.-Sun.  Thunderstorms then reach Southeast half of the Corn Belt & Delta May 19-20

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 34.9 mbu needed; 22.1 last week

• Mixed ideas on U.S. spring wheat planting progress; some believe will be 40% v. 54% last year & 5-year avg. of 65%

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT: Wheat, 30.3 needed; 17.6 last week  

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLM19, +$0.82 @ $62.48; EBN, +1.24 @ $71.86; EBN-QCLN, +.43; RBM, +.0282; NGM, -.014; HOM, +.0279

·       Chicago ethanol was off $.00125 to $1.3075; basis values were mixed: New York, +$.00625 @ $.12750; Gulf, +$.00125 @ $.09750; Dallas, -$.01375 @ $.06750; Tampa, -$.01875 @ $.1575; LA, -$.01375 @ $.28750   

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker:  2018’s, -.50 @ 9 -10; 2019’s, -.25 @ 14 ¼ -14 ½                                       &nb​sp;                       

·       The June RBOB/June ethanol spread gained $.0137 on Friday, widening to+$.68910/gal     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY      &nbs​p;                   ​;             

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• Choice boxed beef declined $1.36 on Friday to $221.11 and is $6.25 lower compared to a week ago
• August feeder cattle futures on Friday closed at $146.825—up $0.45 compared to the previous Friday

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 64-cents on Fri. to $85.71, but is still up $5.19 versus last week

·       CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.04 on Fri. to $82.80.  May futures were unchanged but are still $0.95 above the index 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

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