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TRENDS Lower CK, Down 3, SK, Down 3, WK, Down 6

April 22, 2019 07:03 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS—Lower: CK, -$.0175; SK, -$.0125; WK, -$.0525; KWK, -$.0425 
  • What caught my eye: Noticed lots of planters poised outside of tool sheds on Sunday in Central Illinois, ready to go for what looks to be a fairly open week  
  • U.S. plans further sactions against Iran, oil rallies/futures slip.  Asia: Mostly lower--Nikkei, +0.08%; Shanghai, -1.70%; Hang Seng, Closed.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, Closed; FTSE, -0.15% CAC, closed.  WALL STREET—Futures are weaker--DOW, -50; S&P, -6.50; NAS, -20.00.  EXTERNALS: June crude: +$1.47@ $65.54; Gold:  +$4.80 @ $1,277; $ Index, NA
  • T-storm Weather: Scattered showers occur within northern half of central U.S. Mon. focused on MN, SD & WI & nearby northern areas of IA, IL, & NE; scattered 0.10”-.50” totals.  A large system spins into southern Plains Tue.-Wed. & produces heavy rain of 1.00”-2.00” across much of OK & TX, then exits via the Delta & far-southern Corn Belt Thu.-Fri. where 0.25”-0.75” falls.  A narrow swath between misses rain from both of these events, namely from/near KS through northern MO/southern IA & points east
  • CK, dn $.0175 @ $3.5675; CN, dn $.02 @ $3.6525.  The funds were even in Thursday’s trade    
  • SK, dn $.0125 @ $8.7925; SN, dn $.0150 @ $8.9275  Funds: Bought 1 SB & 3 SBO, sold 1 SBM.  Board Crush: $1.03, 0; LY, $1.30
  • WK, dn $.0525 @ $4.39; WN, dn $.05 @ $4.4325.  The funds closed out the week by selling 3 K  

CORN/SORGHUM

  • T-storm Weather: A stormier period for U.S. corn areas most likely begins in 7 to 10 days.  The exact setup will take days to determine, but at least near-normal rainfall is probable across a wide area over Apr. 29-May 5

·       ATI Research: USDA’s Crop Progress report today is projected to peg U.S. corn planting progress at 5-7% compared to the 5-year avg. of 12%.  The 5-year avg. increase in corn planting progress from April 21-28 is approximately 15%

  • Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 52.2 mbu needed; 46.5 last week.  Milo—2.2 needed; 0.45 last week
  • December 2019 corn futures on Fri. closed at $3.86 ¼; one year ago, December 2018 futures settled at $4.08

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

  • May 2019 soybean futures on Fri. closed at $8.80 ½—the lowest Fri. settlement price for the contract since Sep. 14
  • T-storm Weather: A stormier period for U.S. soybean areas most likely begins in 7 to 10 days.  The exact setup will take days to determine, but at least near-normal rainfall is probable across a wide area over Apr. 29-May 5

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 37.4 mbu needed; 16.9 last week

·       T-storm Weather: High chance exists this week for 0.50”-2.00” of rain across all HRW wheat in OK; only 0.25” in KS

ENERGY

·       Higher:  CLM19+$1.47 @ $65.54; EBM, +1.86 @ $73.83; EBM-QCLM, +.37;RBM, +.0390; NGM, +.015HOM, +.0324

·       Chicago ethanol was steady at $1.3350; basis, mixed: New York, +$.02 @ $.1350; Gulf, -$.0050 @ $.1000; Dallas, +$.01 @ $.0950; Tampa, +$.01 @ $.1850; LA, unch @ $.3700   

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker:  2018’s, -0.1250 @ 10 -11; 2019’s, -.3750 @ 16 ¼ - 17                                 &nb​sp;                       

·       The May RBOB/May ethanol spread widened $.0294 on Friday to+$.7392/gallon    

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY          &​nbsp;                     ​;       

  • Choice boxed beef was 59-cents higher on Friday at $233.65, and is up $4.90 compared to last week
  • Cattle on Feed: April 1 on feed, 102.0% (101.8%avg est); Mar. placed, 104.8% (103.8%); Mar. Market, 96.6% (96.8%)

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 60-cents on Fri. to $86.14, but is still up $1.68 versus a week ago

  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.39 on Thu. at $80.63.  May futures gained $1.275 and are $9.57 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

 



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