HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Lower: CK, -$.0250; SK, -$.0650; WK, -$.0550; KWK, -$.0575
• What caught my eye: Argentina back in the export game . . . soybean line-up though not large at 12 mbu was up 50% year to year; SBM, 8% larger at 1.9 MMT and corn, 39% greater than LY at 81 mbu
• Trade deal may be “monumental” but not as comprehensive as WH would like.  Asia: Higher-Nikkei, +0.38%; Shanghai, holiday; Hang Seng, holiday. EUROPE: Mostly firm—DAX, -0.03%; FTSE, +0.12%; CAC, +0.20%.  WALL STREET—futures, higher--DOW, -28; S&P, +3.75; NAS, +15.25.  EXTERNALS: June crude: unch @ $62.19; Gold:  -$0.30 @ $1,294; $ Index, NA
• T-storm Weather: A large and strong system triggers scattered showers and thunderstorms within a wide area over Sat.-Mon., producing 0.50” to 1.00” in the Corn Belt and Delta, and 0.25” to 0.75” in the eastern Plains.  Another strong system passes April 10-11, producing a swath of heavy rain in / near Nebraska and the Corn Belt.  One or two more strong systems then immediately pass over the following week (April 12-18) to produce additional rain within a wide area, including the Delta after a short break
• CK, dn $.0250 @ $3.6275; CN, dn $.0225 @ $3.72.  The funds bought 3 K Thursday, Chinese optimism                   
• SK, dn $.0650 @ $9.0050; SN, dn $.06 @ $9.1350.  Funds: Bot 4 SB,1 SBM & 2 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.01, -1; LY, $1.59
• WK, dn $.0550 @ $4.6525; WN, dn $.0550 @ $4.6825.  The funds were even in yesterday’s trading            

CORN/SORGHUM

·      USDA Supply/Demand report on April 9: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn 18/19 carryout is 2.013 bbu vs. 1.835 in March

·      USDA WASDE: Avg. trade est. 18/19 Brazil corn crop, 94.7 MMT (94.5 in Mar); Argentina corn, 46.8 MMT (46.0 in Mar)

·      ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. old-crop corn export sales of 518 mbu are down 43% v. last year.  ATI’s U.S. corn export forecast is reduced 20 mbu to 2.165 bbu on a lack of Far East demand, although a caveat on sales to China remains

• T-storm Weather: In Brazil, above-normal rain (1.75”-3.50”) forecast for driersafrinha (double crop) corn next 10 days

·      Consultant: If the wetter Brazil forecast verifies, safrinha corn in Parana/Mato Grosso do Sul/Sao Paulo will benefit

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      USDA Supply/Demand report April 9: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean 18/19 carryout is 0.913 bbu vs. 0.900 in March

·      USDA Supply/Demand: Avg trade est. 18/19 Brazil soybean crop, 116.1 MMT (116.5 Mar); Argentina soy, 55.5 (55.0)

·      ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. 18/19 soybean export sales of 501 mbu are up 38% v. 17/18 & a record for late-March

·      USDA WASDE report on April 9: Avg. trade guess for U.S. wheat 18/19 carryout is 1.076 bbu vs. 1.055 in March

·      ATI Research:  Unshipped 18/19 export sales of U.S. all wheat as of March 28: 224 mbu—up 52% vs. 148 mbu last year

·      T-storm Weather: At least 1.00” of rain is forecast for most U.S. HRW wheat in Central & Southern Plains next 2 weeks

ENERGY

·      Lower:  CLM19, unch @ $62.19; EBM, -$0.15 @ $69.26; EBM-QCLM, -$0.13;RBM, -.0097; NGK, -.009; HOM, -0.0057

·      Chicago ethanol was $.01 weakeer to $1.2900; basis, mostly weaker: New York, +$.00250 @ $.14750 Gulf, -$.01 @ $.1350; Dallas, -$.0250 @ $.14; Tampa, -$.0450 @ $.25; LA, -$.10 @ $.4350   

·      Ethanol RINs, firmer: 2018’s, +1.25 @ 12 -14;  2019’s, +1.75 @ 15 ¼ -17                                             &nb​sp;    

·      The May RBOB/Mayl ethanol spread narrowed $.0053 to +$.6359/gallon on Thursday    

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                         &​nbsp;              

Choice boxed beef was 60-cents higher on Thursday at $226.74, but is still down 70-cents versus last week
• Dressed steer weight for week end March 23: 866 lbs, up a pound v. last week, 871 for 4-week avg. & 878 last year

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value soared $2.67 on Thu. to $81.30, and is $1.32 higher versus a week ago

• CME Lean Hog Index increased $0.56 on Thu. to $78.26.  April futures gained $0.50 & are $1.315 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather