HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Lower: CH, -$.0125; SH, -$.0550; WH, -$.0550; KWH, -$.0325 
• What caught my eye:  BOY corn exports need to average 54+/week, versus the YTD rate of 39/wk; Unshipped sales are down 35% at 543 mbu and the South American crop is expected to be 925 mbu larger this spring  . . . China deal needed
• Asia: Lower--Nikkei, -0.37%; Shanghai, -0.67%; Hang Seng, -0.65%. EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.16%; FTSE, -1.09%; CAC, -0.33%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Lower: DOW, -111; S&P, -7.75; NAS, -25.50. EXTERNALS: April crude: +$0.02 @ $55.50; Gold:  -$1.90 @ $1,328;Mar $ Index, -0.152 @ 96.215.  So, will the market get a comprehensive trade agreement, caution prevails today
• T-storm Weather: In Brazil, a cool front triggers thunderstorms over the next five days.  Some thunderstorms continue next week, but coverage and amounts will be lower than recently.  The result is for near- to above-normal rainfall of 2.25"-4.50" to affect second-crop corn over the next two weeks.  In Argentina, dry and generally cool weather through Sat. will be followed by occasional thunderstorms, resulting in widespread rainfall of 1.25"-2.50" over the next two weeks (especially starting March 3-4)

·       CH, dn $.0125 @ $3.6925; CK, dn $.0150 @ $3.7850.  Despite trade progress, heavy fund selling on Monday at 12 K        

• SH, dn $.0550 @ $9.0625; SK, dn $.0550 @ $9.1950.  Funds: Bot 1 SB, sold 2 SBM, 2 SBO.  Board Crush: $.94, -4; LY, $1.54
• WH, dn $.0550 @ $4.6125; WK, dn $.0475 @ $4.68.  The funds were also heavy sellers of wheat, 15 K on Monday 

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Con​sultant: Argentina corn production estimate is unchanged at 42.0 MMT.  Good yields reported for early harvest

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, upcoming rains next week are expected to prevent the coverage of 30-day dryness from increasing on late-corn, though rain will need to verify given the coverage of 14-day of dryness is elevated

·       ATI Research: U.S. 18/19 corn ending stocks estimate is 1.757 bbu vs. the latest USDA forecast of 1.735 bbu

·       The base pricing period for 2019 crop insurance ends Feb. 28; avg. for December 2019 corn futures to date is $4.0055

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: Brazil soybean crop est. is unchanged at 113.0 MMT with a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward.  Rains could still boost crop prospects in Rio Grande do Sul (far south) and northeastern production areas

·       T-storm Weather: In Brazil, near normal rain is forecast this week for soybeans in far south, above-normal in NE areas

·       ATI Research: U.S. 18/19 soybean ending stocks estimate is 0.969 bbu vs. the latest USDA forecast of 0.910 bbu

·       Base pricing period for 2019 crop insurance ends Feb. 28; avg. for November 2019 soybean futures to date is $9.5486

·       ATI Research: U.S. 18/19 HRW wheat ending stocks estimate is 0.463 bbu vs. the latest USDA forecast of 0.491 bbu

·       T-storm Weather: In the U.S., moderate & strong storm systems next 2 weeks maintain saturated condition for wheat

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLJ19, +$0.02 @ $55.50; EBJ, +$0.21 @ $64.97; EBJ-QCLJ, +$0.17; RBJ, +.0096; NGJ, +.022; HOJ, +0.0181

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0190 higher on Monday to $1.32425; basis values eased: New York, -$.0240 @ $.1025; Gulf, -$.0140 @ $.10750; Dallas, -$.0140 @ $.0875; Tampa, -.0090 @ $.2025; LA, -$.0190 @ $.1975   

·       Ethanol RINs, mostly firmer: 2017’s, +0.25 @ 19-20; 2018’s,unch @ 20-21; 2019’s, +0.75 @ 23 - 24                                        

·       The March RBOB/March ethanol spread shed $.06 Monday, to +$.2052;trading +$.2143 this morning     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                          &n​bsp;            

• Ch​oice boxed beef firmed 16-cemts on Monday to $219.55, and is up $2.70 versus last week  
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $1.40 v. last week at $126.36/cwt, but is $1.59 lower v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $2.42 on Mon. to $59.58, but is still down 49-cents v. a week ago

• CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.52 on Mon. to $53.13.  April futures declined $1.55 but are still $0.77 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

 

 

 

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