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TRENDS Higher CN, Up 9, SN, Up 13, WN, Up 13

May 28, 2019 08:40 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • TRENDS—Higher: CN, $.0925; SN, +$.13 WN, +$.13; KWN, +$.1550 
  • What caught my eye: Just how much behind the 5-year average of 90% planted will this afternoon’s corn progress numbers reveal U.S producers are?
  • Not much news today with  Asia markets higher; Europe is lower.  Asia: Higher--Nikkei, +0.37%; Shanghai, +0.61%; Hang Seng, +0.38%.  EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.46%; FTSE, -0.14%; CAC, -0.56%.  WALL STREET—Futures are lower--DOW, -37; S&P, -7.25; NAS, -14.75.  EXTERNALS: July crude: +$.49 @ $59.12; Gold:  -$0.60 @ $1,283; $ Index+.172 @ 97.785
  • T-storm Weather: Weekend rainfall was with in expectations.  The past 7 days has brought 125% of normal or more precipitation to much of the Midwest, stretching from ND, SD, NE, KS in the west, across IA and MO, into WI and the western ½ of IL.  This morning the remnant of a strong storm complex is bringing more rain to E EN, W IA and S SD. This will weaken later in the morning but another large cluster of storms will redevelop later the day/tonight  
  • CN, up $.0925 @ $4.1350; CU, up $.09 @ $4.2150.  The funds bought 20 K on Friday            
  • SN, up $.13 @ $8.4275; SQ, up $.13 @ $8.4950.  Funds: Bot-- 5 SB, 5 SBM, 4 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.28, +1; LY, $1.40
  • WN, up $.13 @ $5.0250; WU, up $.1275 @ $5.0950.  The funds ended the week buying 1 K   

CORN/SORGHUM

  • ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. corn planting increases approx. 10% from May 19-26 to 90%.  There are mixed ideas on last week’s progress with some thinking it will be in the 60-65% range this afternoon
  • Export inspections released at 10 am CDT: Corn, 55.0/wk needed; 32.3 last week. Milo, 2.2 needed; 695 K last week

·       December 2019 corn futures closed at $4.19 ¾, the highest level of the contract since a year ago to the day when CZ19 closed at $4.22 ¾ but below CZ18’s $4.25 close

·       ATI Research:  Recent old crop sales are averaging just 18 million per week, which is down nearly 50% from last year’s pace and 40%/12 mbu per week below the seasonal average as South American competition looms large

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research: This weekend’s 5-year average has 66% of the soybean crop planted with a week to week increase of 19 points. A 15-point increase to 34% may be optimistic

·       Export inspections released at 10 am CDT: Soybeans, 37.1 mbu needed; 18.3 last week. Wheat, 29.3 needed; 27.8 last week

  • O/S old crop SB sales are averaging a mediocre 10 million per week, slightly better than last year’s 8+ per week average for the same period but 1 million below the seasonal average of 10.7/week. Will summer exports match 2018’s 26+/week average?

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLN19+$0.49 @ $59.12; EBN, +$0.18 @ $70.29; EBN-QCLN-.28; RBN, +.0349; NGN, -.039HON, +.0435

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0350 higher on Friday at $1.3825; basis values were mixed: New York, -$.02 @ $.0925; Gulf, +$.0050 @ $.0825; Dallas, unch @ $.0875; Tampa, -$.0050 @ $.2125; LA, +$.02 @ $.2875  

·       Ethanol RINs were mixed:  2018’s, +.125 @ 9 ½ -10 ¾; 2019’s, -.125 @ 13 ¾ - 14                              ​;                         ​;              

·  &nbs​p;    The June RBOB/June ethanol spread lost $.0135 Friday and closed at+$.5498/gal       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             <​wbr>                     ​     

  • Choice boxed beef was $0.85 higher Friday at $221.64 and is up $1.33 versus last week 
  • June live cattle futures on May 24 closed at $111.175 which is $0.110 lower compared to May 17. Friday’s COF: On feed, 102% versus 103.1 expected; Placements,109% vs 114.4 expected; Marketed, 107% vs 106.6 expected

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $.01 higher Friday to $81.96 and is $1.95 lower versus a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index was down $.340 Friday at $84.03.  June futures fell $3.00 are $2.395 above the index 

·         Sources: Bloombeg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

 



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