HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Higher: CK, +2; SK, +1; WK, +3 ¼; KWH, +2 ¾. Dely: SBM-100; SBO-60; RR-2; C-809; SB-2438; SRW-15
• What caught my eye:  Trade will note CONAB’s numbers this morning with trade expecting a bean crop between 112.1 and 114.1 (115.3 LM) and corn in the 91.1-93.7 MMT range (91.7 LM)
• Asia: Higher-Nikkei, +1.79%; Shanghai, +1.10%; Hang Seng, +1.46%.  EUROPE: Mostly higher—DAX, +0.09%; FTSE, -0.06%;CAC, +0.17%.  WALL STREET: Mostly higher: DOW, -25; S&P, +1.50; NAS, +10.00.  EXTERNALS: April crude: +$0.54 @ $57.33Gold:  +$6.30 @ $1,297; Mar $ Index, -0.159 @ 97.015.  Better than expected January retail sales helped investor confidence Monday
• T-storm Weather: In Brazil, thunderstorms occur over the next two weeks in varying areas at varying times, producing widespread coverage of near- and above-normal rainfall of 2.25” to 4.50”.  Temps will vary, but average near- to marginally above-normal on safrinha(double crop) corn.  In Argentina, areas of surface-level high pressure pass every few days, leaving all areas much cooler than normal by 4°F to 8°F over the next 10 days.  Some rains occur when weak waves of energy pass

·       CK, up $.02 @ $3.64; CN, up $.02 @ $3.7350.  The funds were active sellers on Monday, estimated at 15 K           

• SK, up $.01 @ $8.91; SN, up $.0050 @ $9.0450.  Funds: sold 5 SB and 4 SMB, even SBO.  Board Crush: $.99, +1; LY, $1.23
• WK, up $.0325 @ $4.3175; WN, up $.0350 @ $4.4050.  The funds began the week selling 8 K  

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Consultant: Argentina corn production estimate is increased 1.0 MMT to 44.0 MMT.  Rainfall last week across central Argentina was very beneficial for the corn crop in spite of the fact that a few areas received too much rain

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, cool temps over the next 10 days is near-ideal for filling late-corn.  However, some rain would be beneficial as totals over the next two weeks generally range from 0.75”-1.50”, or 50% to 75% of normal

·       ATI Research: U.S. 18/19 corn ending stocks estimate is 1.979 bbu vs. the latest USDA forecast of 1.835 bbu. 

·       Surveys for the USDA Prospective Plantings report due out March 29 are conducted during the first 2 weeks of March

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: Brazil soybean crop estimate is steady at 113.5 MMT with a neutral to slightly higher bias.  Soybean harvest is approx. 57% v. 48% last year & 47% for the 5-year avg.  Harvest has slowed last 3 weeks due to wet weather

·       T-storm Weather: In Brazil, near- and above-normal rainfall this week may slow soybean harvest in central areas

·       ATI Research: U.S. 18/19 soybean ending stocks estimate is 0.934 bbu vs. the latest USDA forecast of 0.900 bbu

·       ATI Research: U.S. 18/19 SRW wheat ending stocks estimate is 0.156 bbu vs. the latest USDA forecast of 0.163 bbu

·       T-storm Weather: Heavy rain this week focuses on U.S. HRW wheat, leaving the crop wet through end of the month 

ENERGY

·       ​Higher: CLJ19, +$0.54 @ $57.33; EBK, +$0.74 @ $67.32; EBK-QCLK, +$0.21; RBJ, +.0082; NGJ, +.004; HOJ, +0.0138

·       Chicago ethanol eased $.00425 to $1.28325; basis, mixed: New York, +$.00425 @ $.11925; Gulf, -$.01325 @ $.09925; Dallas, +$.00575 @ $.13675; Tampa, -.02575 @ $.24175; LA, +$.00425 @ $.2365   

·       Ethanol RINs, weaker: 2017’s, -2.50 @ 14-15 ½; 2018’s, -0.50 @ 19 -20 ½; 2019’s, -0.875 @ 20 ¼ -23                             &n​bsp;               

·       The April RBOB/April ethanol spread was again wider, +$.0303 on Monday to +$.50330/gallon; @ $.54 this morning     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             ​                        &​nbsp; 

• ​ Choice boxed beef was $1.23 higher on Monday at $227.36, and is up $3.81 versus last week
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $0.07 v. last week at $128.15/cwt, but is $1.36 higher v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $1.96 on Monday to $65.25, and is $3.92 higher versus a week ago 

• CME Lean Hog Index climbed $0.27 on Monday to $51.98.  April futures increased $2.30 & are $10.87 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather