HIGHLIGHTS
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TRENDS—Higher: CH, +$.0150; SH, +$.0025; WH, +$.0575; KWH, +$.0625
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What caught my eye: IF the trade deal is 20 MMT old crop beans as some suggest, how much non-PRC biz will shift to South America which is looking at a 475-500 mbu LARGER crop this year? Non-PRC/non-Unknown unshipped record large 180 mbu
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Asia: Mixed-Nikkei, +0.50%; Shanghai, +0.42%; Hang Seng, -0.05%. EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.61%; FTSE, -0.92%; CAC, -0.29%. WALL STREET: Futures, Down: DOW, -62; S&P, -5.75; NAS, -13.75. EXTERNALS: April crude: +$0.93 @ $56.43; Gold: +$0.90 @ $1,329;Mar $ Index, -0.080 @ 95.7855. So, will the market get a comprehensive trade agreement, caution prevails today
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T-storm Weather: In Brazil, wet weather continues over the next 5 days. Rainfall continues next week but will be less organized; the end result is 2.25”-4.50” affects most production areas over the next two weeks, except for lesser totals in Rio Grande do Sul. In Argentina, most areas will be dry through at least Sat. Some showers follow Sun.-Mon., but better-organized rain holds until Mon.-Tue. forward when a couple cool fronts produce near-normal totals of 1.25”-2.50” over the week that follows (March 4-10)
· CH, up $.0150 @ $3.6775; CK, up $.0150 @ $3.7750. More skepticism surrounding trade deal? Funds sell 15 K
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SH, up $.0025 @ $9.04; SK, unch @ $9.17. Funds: Selling—6 K SB, 4 K SBM, 5 K SBO. Board Crush: $.94, 0; LY, $1.66
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WH, up $.0575 @ $4.66; WK, up $.0475 @ $4.73. More liquidation in wheat, 5 K estimated on Tuesday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Consultant: Brazil corn crop est. for 2018/19 is unch at 91.5 MMT. There was good moisture last week across central Brazil where safrinha (double crop) corn has been planted at a record fast pace, and is generally off to a good start
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T-storm Weather: In Brazil, cool fronts continue to pass and dissipate over the next two weeks, triggering thunderstorms and improving soil moisture on vegetative safrinha (double crop) corn.
· Ethanol margins: $0.11 per gallon—down vs. $0.14 last week and well below $0.36 in 2018. EIA report at 9:30 am CST
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. unch at 55.0 MMT; weekend rain brought relief from recent hot/dry weather
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T-storm Weather: In Argentina, 1.25”-2.50” of rain affects most soybeans over the next two weeks starting Sun.-Mon. (March 3-4), but more so next week. Temps will remain unseasonably cool through Thu. with highs only in the 70s
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T-storm Weather: In the U.S., unseasonable coldness over the next 10 to 14 days keeps most HRW wheat dormant
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. all wheat exports are forecast at 20-25 mbu per week compared to 15.2 last year
ENERGY
· Higher: CLJ19, +$0.93 @ $56.43; EBJ, +$0.85 @ $66.06; EBJ-QCLJ, -$0.08;RBJ, +.0221; NGJ, -.015; HOJ, +0.0107
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +2.4 (-4.2); Gasoline, -1.2 (-3.8); Distillates, -1.8 (+0.4). Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.0145 mbpd (range: 1.000-1.250). Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 23.999 mb (range 23.800-24.363)
· Chicago ethanol remained at $1.32425 on Tuesday; basis values were mixed: New York, +$.0125 @ $.1150; Gulf, -$.0050 @ $.10250; Dallas, +$.02 @ $.1075; Tampa, +.0050 @ $.2075; LA, unch @ $.1975
· Ethanol RINs, mostly firmer: 2017’s, +0.125 @ 19 ¼ -20; 2018’s,+0.375 @ 20 ¼ -21; 2019’s, -0.375 @ 22 ¾ - 23 ½
· The March RBOB/March ethanol spread popped out $.0441 yesterday, to+$.2493
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 13-cents on Tue. to $59.45, but is 80-cents higher versus last week
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CME Lean Hog Index was $0.28 lower on Tue. at $52.85. April futures firmed $1.825 and are $2.875 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
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