HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Easier:  CZ, -$.0175; SX, -$.0050; WZ, -$.0225; KWZ, -$.0250 

·       What caught my eye:  An Ohio farmer speaking on a TV business channel regarding China trade deal . . . “I don’t believe it until (the crops are) on the boat”.  Concern here is what the U.S. might pick up in soybean sales to China, will send others to S AM 

·       Markets are mostly firmer, but cautious.  ASIA: Mixed--Nikkei, +1.87%; Shanghai, -0.56%; Hang Seng, -0.07%.  EUROPE: Mostly firm—DAX, +0.41%; FTSE, -0.39%; CAC, +0.51%.  WALL STREET—Futures are higher-- DOW, +66; S&P, +7.75; NAS, +2.75.  EXTERNALS: Nov crude: -$0.82 @ $52.77; Gold: +$3.70 @ $1,501; $ Index: -.016 @ 98.438

• Weather: Dry across western U.S. Corn Belt today.  Mostly dry Wed.-Thu. but showers occur on Fri., favoring southern & eastern areas.  Temps near to below normal Tue., below normal Wed, near to above normal west & below normal east on Thu. & near to mostly above normal Fri.  In eastern Corn Belt, light rain or showers favor northwest, south & east areas today.  Dry or lingering light rain for northeast areas Wed.   Mostly dry Thu. & during daytime of Fri.  Temps variable Tue., & below normal Wed.-Thu.
• CZ, dn $.0175 @ $3.96; CH, dn $.01 @ $4.0650.  Trade deal enthusiasm ebbs, funds sell 2 K to begin the week           
• SX, dn $.0050 @ $9.40; SF, dn $.0050 @ $9.5450.  Funds: Bot 5 SB, even SBM & SBO.  Board Crush: $0.73, -4; LY, $1.55
• WZ, dn $.0225 @ $5.0875; WH, dn $.0225 @ $5.1450.  Funds buy 3 K Monday, not sure why though global prices headed higher            

CORN/SORGHUM

• USDA Crop Progress report expected to show corn Good/Excellent crop ratings at 55% versus 56% last week and 68% last year.  Harvest is estimated at 22-24% compared to 15% last week, 39% last year and the 5-year average of 36%
• Weather: NWS 6-10 day forecast for Oct. 20-24 calls for above to much above normal precip for the entire Midwest.  Temps are forecast to be above normal east of the Mississippi River and normal to below normal to the west

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 38.7 mbu needed; 18.4 last week.  Milo—2.0 needed; 3.5 last week

• Through Oct. 14, the 2019 crop insurance harvest price for December 2019 corn futures has averaged $3.9065  

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• USDA Crop Progress report expected to show soybean Good/Excellent crop ratings steady at 53% vs. 66% last year.  Harvest is estimated at 21-23% compared to 14% last week, 37% last year and the 5-year average of 49%
• Weather: NWS 6-10 day forecast for Oct. 20-24 calls for above to much above normal precip for the entire Midwest 

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybean, 34.5 mbu needed; 38.2 last week

·       Through Oct. 14, the 2019 crop insurance harvest price for November 2019 soybean futures has averaged $9.2208

·       Chicago SRW December wheat futures on Mon. closed at $5.11--highest settlement price for the contract since 7/29

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 18.3 mbu needed; 14.2 last week

ENERGY

·       Down: CLX19, -$0.82 @ $52.72; EBZ, -$0.75 @ $58.61; EBZ-QCLZ, +.04; RBX, -.0089; NGX, -.005; HOX, -.0101

·       Chicago ethanol shed $.0275 on Monday, to $1.6425; basis values were mostly firmer:  NYC, +$.0225 @ +$.1825; Gulf, -$.0125 @ +$.0475; Dallas, +$.0125 @ +.0075; Tampa, +$.0225 @ +$.0925; LA, +$.0125 @ $.1425

·       Ethanol RINs firme: 2018’s,+0.50 @ 7 -10; 2019’s, +0.50 @ 17 ¾ -18 ¼; 2020’s, NA @ 23-26                                                                   &nbs​p;                        ​;      

·       The November RBOB/November ethanol spread narrowed $.0186 to $.1132/gallon   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                     &nbs​p;                 

·       Choice boxed beef was $1.56 higher on Monday at $217.22 and is up $6.13 versus last week  

• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price gained $1.87 last week to $109.21/cwt but is $1.31 lower v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased 47-cents on Mon. to $77.49 and is up 27-cents vs. a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.93 on Mon. to $62.11.  December futures fell $0.475 but are $7.015 above the index                            

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN