HIGHLIGHTS
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TRENDS—Easier: CZ, -$.0325; SX, -$.0125; WZ, -$.02; KWZ, -$.0150
· What caught my eye: 4 of the 5 “analog” years to this fall’s anemic corn export start program have seen the USDA cut its October forecast between now & final. The ave decline for all five is 148 mbu; or 222 for the 4 years with downward revisions
· Brexit & the U.S./China trade deal have the markets a little uneasy . ASIA: Mostly firm--Nikkei, +1.20%; Shanghai, -0.61%; Hang Seng, +0.61%. EUROPE: Mostly weaker—DAX, +0.24%; FTSE, -0.17%; CAC, -0.03%. WALL STREET—Futures are weaker-- DOW, -61; S&P, -7.25; NAS, -17. EXTERNALS: Nov crude: +$0.02 @ $52.83; Gold: +$3.00 @ $1,487; $ Index: -.025 @ 98.263
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Weathe</strong>r: Mostly dry for western U.S. Corn Belt today-Thu. Showers, favoring southern & eastern areas, Fri. or Fri. night. Temps below normal today, near to above normal west and below normal east Thu. & near to mostly above normal Fri. In the eastern Corn Belt, dry or with only lingering light rain in northeast areas today. Mostly dry Thu. & during the daytime Fri. Showers & a little light rain in western areas Fri. night. Temps below normal today-Thu., near to above normal west & below normal east Fri.
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CZ, dn $.0325 @ $3.90; CH, dn $.0250 @ $4.0175. More fund liquidation, 8 K on Tuesday
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SX, dn $.0125 @ $9.3275; SF, dn $.0150 @ $9.47. Funds: Sold 5 SB, 3 SBM & bot 5 SBO. Board Crush: $0.77, +4; LY, $1.51
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WZ, dn $.02 @ $5.05; WH, dn $.02 @ $5.1125. Funds sold the 3 K they bought on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
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USDA Crop Progress report pegs corn Good/Excellent crop ratings at 55% versus 56% last week and 68% last year. Harvest is estimated at 22% compared to 15% last week, 38% last year and the 5-year average of 36%
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Weather: NWS 6-10 day forecast for Oct. 21-25 calls for above to much above normal precip for the entire Midwest. Temps are forecast to be below normal west of the Mississippi River and normal to above to the east
· ATI Research: the dismal pace of 2019/20 U.S. corn exports persists; e.g. year-to-date shipments of 98 mbu are down 64% compared to last year
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
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USDA Crop Progress report pegs soybean Good/Excellent crop ratings at 54% versus 53% last week and 66% last year. Harvest is estimated at 26% compared to 14% last week, 37% last year and the 5-year average of 49%
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Weather: NWS 6-10 day forecast for Oct. 21-25 calls for above to much above normal precip for the entire Midwest. Temps are forecast to be below normal west of the Mississippi River and normal to above to the east
· U.S. spring wheat harvest pegged at 94% vs. 100% for both last year and the 5-year avg; ND at 93%, MT at 88%
· Mostly dry conditions are forecast the remainder of this week for reproductive wheat in Western Australia
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLX19, +$0.02 @ $52.83; EBZ, -$0.04 @ $58.70; EBZ-QCLZ, -.06; RBX, -.0068; NGX, +.024; HOX, +.0065
· Chicago ethanol dropped $.13 to $1.5395; basis values were much firmer: NYC, +$.0480 @ +$.23050; Gulf, +$.0730 @ +$.12050; Dallas, +$.0780 @ +.08550; Tampa, +$.0930 @ +$.1855; LA, +$.0880 @ $.2305
· Ethanol RINs were weaker: 2018’s,-0.25 @ 7 -9 ½; 2019’s, -0.25 @ 17-18 ½; 2020’s, -.50 @ 23 ½ -25    
· The November RBOB/November ethanol spread widened $.0702 to $.1834/gallon; trading $.1503 this morning
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY <wbr><wbr><wbr><wbr>
· Choice boxed beef increased 80-cents on Tuesday to $218.02 and is $4.42 higher compared to a week ago
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October live cattle futures on Tuesday closed at $111.000—the highest settlement price for the contract since May 1
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 20-cents on Tue. to $77.29 and is 23-cents lower versus last week
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $50.57/cwt vs. last week’s $50.04, last month’s $44.04 and last year’s $36.58
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN