HIGHLIGHTS

• TRENDS—Firm:  CZ, +$.02; SX, +$.020; WZ, +$.03; KWZ, +$.03. 
• What caught my eye: In addition to facing slightly more major corn exporter production competition this year (up 3+ MMT), non-Chinese corn consumption is expected to increase only 4 MMT (past 3 years: 22+/year) as wheat feeding rises nearly 6 MMT

·       Markets nervous over up-coming Fed rate decision, reduction expected?  ASIA: Mostly lower--Nikkei, -0.18%; Shanghai, +0.29%; Hang Seng, -0.13%.  EUROPE: Firm—DAX, +0.07%; FTSE, +0.10%; CAC, +0.13%.  WALL STREET—Futures are weaker-- DOW, -33; S&P, 5.00; NAS, -15.00.  EXTERNALS: Nov crude: -$0.36 @ $58.74; Gold:  -$3.30 @ $1,510; $ Index: +.151 @ 98.412

·       T-storm Weather®: Unseasonable mildness continues across the central U.S. into the weekend, followed by a seasonably-cooler pattern, but killing freezes are not expected for at least two more weeks.  Widespread rain also affects the central U.S. over the next 10 days, especially this weekend and early next week as a cool front potentially links with the remnant of a tropical disturbance offshore Texas

• CZ, up $.02 @ $3.70; CH, up $.0150 @ $3.8150.  Funds pause, sell 8 K on Tuesday     
• SX, up $.02 @ $8.9575; SF, up $.0250 @ $9.0975.  Funds: Sold 5 K SB, 3 K SBM, & 3 K SBO.  Board Crush: $0.83, 0; LY, $1.45
• WZ, up $.03 @ $4.8725; WH, up $.0250 @ $4.9325.  Fund selling was estimated at 3 K yesterday   

CORN/SORGHUM

• T-storm Weather®: some light frost is plausible in northern U.S. corn areas at some points next week (especially in/near northern MN), but potential for killing freezes (low of 28°F/-2°C or colder) is very low over the next two weeks
• ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. corn is unchanged at 15-25 mbu per week compared to 53.6 mbu last year 

·       Consultant: Current est. for Brazil 2019/20 corn acreage is 18.4 mil ha (45.5 mil acres), which is up 5.1% vs. last year

• Ethanol margins: $0.07 per gallon—down vs. $0.14 last week and below $0.19 in 2018.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• T-storm Weather®: some light frost is plausible in northern U.S. soybean areas at some points next week (especially in/near northern MN), but potential for killing freezes (low of 28°F/-2°C or colder) is very low over the next two weeks
• ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports remains 30-40 mbu per week compared to 29.6 mbu last year 

·       Base crop insurance price for 2020 Kansas City July wheat is $4.35 compared to $5.75 last year (-24%)

• T-storm Weather®: Unseasonable dryness and near-normal temps dominate Argentina wheat the next 10 to 14 days

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLX19, -$0.36 @ $57.84; EBX, -$0.17 @ $64.38; EBX-QCLX, +.21; RBX, -.0163; NGX, +.015; HOX, -.0111

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -2.7 (+0.6); Gasoline, -1.2 (+1.6); Distillates, +0.6 (+2.0).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 1.013 mbpd (range: 1.010-1.018).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 22.517 mb (range 22.300-22.749)

·       Chicago ethanol eased $.00675 yesterday to $1.38950; basis values were mostly firmer:  NYC, +$.01925 @ $.13800; Gulf, +$.00425 @ $.12550; Dallas, +$.01425 @ $.12050; Tampa, +$.00925 @ $.22550; LA, -$.00325 @ $.21050

·       Ethanol RINs continue to move higher: 2018’s, +2.25 at @ 14 -16; 2019’s, +4.00 @ 24 -26                              &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                                       

· ​      The October RBOB/October ethanol spread retreated $.0573 to $.2971 on Tuesday 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;

• Choice boxed beef was 85-cents lower on Tuesday at $219.77 and is down $5.61 compared to a week ago
• Estimates for Sep. 20 USDA Cattle on Feed: Sep. 1 on feed, 99.4%; Placed in Aug, 94.5%; Marketed in Aug, 98.4%

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased 10-cents on Tue. to $67.70 but is still down $3.60 vs. last week 

·       CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.99 on Tue. to $57.49.  October futures fell $1.525 but are still $4.61 above the index                           

Sourc​es: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather