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RKET TREND Mostly weaker CN, down 1, SN, Up 4, WN, down 4

May 15, 2017 08:03 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       MARKET TREND—Mostly weaker: CN, down $.01; SN, Up $.0175; WN, down $.0425; KWN, down $.05

·       MACRO—Saudis/Russia said to extend the agreement on freezing oil output for an additional 9 months.  ASIA—Mostly higher: Nikkei, -0.07%; Shanghai, +0.22%; Hang Seng, +0.86%.  EUROPE—Mostly weaker:  DAX, -0.19%; FTSE, +0.16%; CAC, -0.23%. Wall Street-Futures are mixed:  DOW, +31; S&P, +1.75; NAS, -1.50.  EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index, -0.341 @ 98.60; June Gold, +3.40 @ $1,231; June Crude, +$1.30 @ $49.14. 

·       T-storm Weather: Thunderstorms most likely begin in the northern third of the Corn Belt and Plains tonight andTuesday, then the northwest half of the central U.S.Wednesday night and Thursday (including some thunderstorms in the wettest areas or/near southern Illinoi)s, then across the southeast half of the Corn and DeltaFriday-Sunday.  Rainfall amounts of 1.50”-3.50” result across the northwest half of the Corn Belt and adjacent areas of the Plains, while 1.00”-2.00” totals are seen elsewhere

·       Corn: CN down $.01 @ $3.70;  CZ down $.01 @ $3.8775.   The funds bought 2 K on Friday           

·       SB: SN up $.0175 @ $9.6475; SX up $.0050 @ $9.6025.  Funds: sld 2 SB, 2 SBM, bot 3 BO.  Board Crush: $.87, +3; LY; $.86

·       Wheat: WN down $.0425 @ $4.2850; WU down $.04 @ $4.4275.  Fund selling totaled 1 K to close out the week              

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather: By next Monday (May 22), it is most probable for temps to be seasonable to cool.  Scattered showers but not well-organized are forecast (driest in the northern Plains, wettest in the southeast Corn Belt & Delta)

·       ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. corn emergence increases approximately 17% from May 7-14 to 36%

·       Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 40.1 mbu needed; 28.4 last week.  Milo—3.1 needed; 6.5 last week

·       December 2017 corn futures on Friday closed at $3.87 ¾ vs. $3.98 ¼ for December 2016 corn last year.  December 2016 corn last year subsequently reached a peak of $4.49 on June 17 and made a low of $3.14 ¾ on Aug. 31   

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 13.0 mbu needed; 12.8 last week

·       T-storm Weather: Only 15% U.S. soybeans were wetter than normal the past week as dry areas developed--esp. north

·       ATI Research: Since 2009, the largest percentage increase in U.S. soybean plantings over May 7-14 was 23% in 2012 while the smallest increase was 8% in 2013

·       ATI Research: The 5-year average for U.S. spring wheat emergence increases approximately 15% from May 7-14 to approximately 44%

·       T-storm Weather: Rainfall of 0.50”-1.50” impacts southern areas of Argentina this week where wheat is being planted

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLM17, +$1.30 @ $49.14; EBN, +1.34 @ $52.18;EBN-QCLN, +0.04; RBM,+$.0275; NGM, -$0.038; HOM, +$.0347

·       An additional recovery was seen in cash ethanol marketson Friday: Chicago firmed 5 ¼; New York, Tampa and Dallas added 3; Gulf increased 3 ¾; and LA was a penny higher at $1.65 per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs posted gains again on Friday: 2016’s climbed 4 to 46 ½-48 ½; and 2017’s firmed 3 ½ to 46 ½-48 ½ 

·       The June RBOB/June ethanol spread lost $.0121 on Friday, easing to +$.06810/gallon, premium RBOB

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                         &nb​sp;           

·       Ch​oice boxed beef values firmed 83-cents on Friday to $247.69, and are $8.82 higher vs. a week ago

·       Sharp gains in live cattle futures on Friday were linked in part to news China was lifting its ban on imports of U.S. beef

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass gained $1.54 on Friday to $82.82, and is up $5.33 compared to last week

·       CME Lean Hog Index increased $1.51 on Fri. to $70.63.  June futures gained $0.90 and are $7.32 above the index    

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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