HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Lower: CZ, -$.0025; SX, -$.0325; WZ, -$.0125; KWZ, -$.01. 
• MACRO:  Rising interest and trade issues lead IMF to scale 2018 global growth forecast to 3.7%; U.S./China situation shows no signs of improving. ASIA: Mostly lower: Nikkei, -1.32%; Shanghai, +0.17%; Hang Seng, -0.11%.  EUROPE: Lower:  DAX, -0.59%; FTSE, -0.39%; CAC, -0.35%.  WALL STREET: Futures are quite a bit lower: DOW, -123; S&P, -13.00; NAS, -35.25.  EXTERNALS: Nov crude: +$.54 @ $74.83; Dec Gold: +$1.30 @ $1,190; Dec $ Index, +0.299 @ 95.735. Del’y: SBM, 34; SBO, 395; ETOH, 0

·        T-storm Weather: A large and strong system produces widespread coverage of heavy rain across the U.S. Plains and western half of the Corn Belt through Wed., followed by rain across the eastern half of the Corn Belt Wed-Thu.  Thereafter, a trailing system combines with the remnant circulation of Hurricane Sergio in the Pacific Ocean to produce additional rainfall within the southern half of the central U.S. Fri.-Sat.  Harvesting and winter wheat planting slows and stops as the week progresses

·       CZ, dn $.0025 @ $3.6625; CH, dn $.0025 @ $3.7825.  The funds opened the week selling 4 K                    

• SX, dn $.0325 @ $8.6650; SF, dn $.0350 @ $8.7950.  Funds: Even SB & SBM, bought 2 K SBO.  Board Crush: $1.57, -1, LY: $.93
• WZ, dn $.0125 @ $5.1275; WH, dn $.0125 @ $5.3275.  Fund selling on Monday was estimated at 4 K                

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·      &​nbsp;Oct. 11 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 2018 U.S. corn crop: 14.851 bbu (range 14.700-14.969) & 14.827 in Sep.

• Oct. 11 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn carryout--18/19, 1.932 bbu (range 1.774-2.352) & 1.774 in Sep

·       T-storm Weather: An extended period of drying for U.S. corn harvest begins as rain ends from north to south over Wed.-Sat. & areas of high pressure pass, diminishing field and river flooding in wettest areas as next week progresses

• Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 46.4 mbu needed; 52.9 last week.  Milo—3.6 needed; 0.1 last week
• Consultant: Brazil may plant more safrinha (double crop) corn because soybeans are being planted earlier than avg.

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Oct. 11 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 2018 U.S. soybean crop: 4.733 bbu (range 4.623-4.890) & 4.693 in Sep

·       Oct. 11 WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean carryout--18/19, 0.860 bbu (range 0.442-0.975) & 0.845 in Sep

·       T-storm Weather: An extended period of drying for U.S. soybean harvest begins as rain ends from north to south over Wed.-Sat. & areas of high pressure pass, diminishing field and river flooding in wettest areas as next week progresses

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 40.7 mbu needed; 21.7 last week

·       Oct. 11 WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. all wheat carryout--18/19, 0.956 bbu (range 0.895-1.020) & 0.935 in Sep

• Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 22.0 mbu needed; 13.6 last week

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLX18, +$0.54 @ $74.83; EBZ, +$0.80 @ $84.71; EBZ-QCLX, +$0.27; RBX, +0.000; NGX, +.080; HOX, +.0164

·       Chicago ethanol again firmed a ½ cent to $1.30 ¼; basis levels vs Chicago were mixed—New York, +$0.0015 @ $.1190; Gulf, unch @ $.1075; Dallas, +1/2 @ $.03 ¾; Tampa, unch @ $.1575 and LA, -2 ½ @ $.1575    

·       Ethanol RINs weakened: 2017’s, -3/4 @ 9-10; 2018’s, -7/8’s @ 11 ¾ to 13; 2019’s, NA @ 14             

·       The Nov RBOB/Nov ethanol spread was $.0056 wider on Monday at+$.7717 per gallon  

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                          ​;            

• Choice boxed beef values eased 4-cents on Monday to $203.21 and are $1.87 lower vs. a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price gained $0.30 last week to $110.95/cwt and is $1.50 higher v. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 48-cents on Monday to $77.24 & is down $2.69 compared to last week
• CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.05 on Mon. to $69.36.  October futures gained $0.25 but are $0.91 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather