HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Weaker: CZ: down $.0175; SX: down $.0175; WZ: down $.0375; KWZ: down $.0325

·       MACRO:  Awaiting Trump’s tax plan as tensions between Washington and North Kora ease. ASIA—Mostly firmer: Nikkei, -0.33%; Shanghai, +0.07%; Hang Seng, +0.05%. EUROPE: Mostly firmer:  DAX,+0.07%; FTSE, -0.21%; CAC, +0.03%.   WALL STREET—Futures are again pointing a little higher—DOW, +6; S&P, +2.50; NAS, +10.00.  EXTERNALS:  $ Index: +.384 @ 93.165; Gold: -$7.30 @ $1,290; Oct crude:-$0.10 @ $52.09/bl. 

• T-storm Weather: Areas of rain end within wheat areas of the U.S. southern Plains over the next 24 to 36 hours.  Most other areas will be dry through Sunday, after which a storm system or two bring light to moderate rain to much of the Plains and western Corn Belt (but most likely leaving areas to the east fairly dry once again).  Temperatures turn much cooler in the eastern Corn Belt and Delta over the next few days, but sharp warming unfolds from west to east this weekend and next week
• CZ, down $.0175 @ $3.5050; CH, down $.02 @ $3.6325.  Large speculators were even on Tuesday
• SX, down $.0175 @ $9.6175; SF, down $.0150 @ $9.7250.  Funds:  sold 4 SB; 3 SBM; 6 SBO.  Board Crush: $.81, -2; LY: $.72
• WZ, down $.0375 @ $4.50; WH, down $.0375 @ $4.6975.  Fund buying yesterday was estimated at 2 K 

 

CORN/SORGHUM

• USDA Grain Stocks report on Sep. 29: Avg. trade guess for U.S. Sept. 1 corn stocks, 2.346 bbu (range 2.310-2.380)

·       T-storm Weather: Across the southeast half of the Corn Belt & Delta, dry weather prevails over the next 7-10 days as areas of high pressure suppress rainfall.  The end result is most likely for corn harvesting in the region to accelerate

• ATI Research: Although the export model is suggesting U.S. corn exports over the up-coming 4-week period to be in the 29-39 mbu range, bias is in the mid to the high 20s

·       Consultant: Argentina farmers finally finished harvesting the 16/17 corn crop, one of the slowest in recent memory

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

• USDA Grain Stocks report on Sept. 29: Avg. trade guess for U.S. Sept. 1 soybean stocks, 0.339 bbu (range 0.321-0.363)
• ATI Research: U.S. soybean export forecast has risen to 45-50 mbu/week by the end of the up-coming 4-week period

·       Consultant: Less than 1% of Brazil’s 2017/18 soybean crop has been planted—down from the 5-year average of 2.4%

·       USDA Grain Stocks report on Sep. 29: Avg. trade guess for U.S. Sept. 1 wheat stocks, 2.203 bbu (range 2.083-2.450)

• USDA Small Grains Summary report on Sep. 29: Avg. guess for U.S. all wheat crop, 1.724 bbu (range 1.665-1.800)
• T-storm Weather: In Australia, light rain is added to wheat in Queensland/northern New South Wales this weekend

ENERGY

·       Easier: CLX17, -$0.10 @ $52.09; EBX, -$0.52 @ $57.92;EBX-QCLX, -$.41; RBX, -.0209; NGX, +.015; HOX, -.0034

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +2.1 (-0.8); Gasoline, -1.0 (+1.5); Distillates, -2.1 (-4.5)

·       Cash ethanol markets were weaker on Tuesday: Chicago declined 2 3/8; New York eased 1 ¼; Gulf off 2 1/8; Dallas down 2 ½; Tampa fell 1 ½; and LA was 1 ½ lower at $1.69 per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs were notably weaker on Tuesday: 2016’s and 2017’s declined 3 ½ to 75-83 ¾

·       The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol spread gave up $.0232Tuesday, retreating to +$.17180/gallon  

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                      &​nbsp;              

• Choice boxed beef values formed $2.82 on Tue. to $196.78, are up $4.67 vs. a week ago & the highest since Aug. 16
• Tuesday’s week-to-week gain in choice boxed beef values was the largest increase since June 9

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 88-cents Tue. to $72.17—dn $3.73 v. last week & lowest since Nov. 17

• CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.68 on Tue. to $56.98.  October futures fell $1.075 and are $1.73 below the index 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather