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MARKET TREND Mostly lower CZ, Down 1, SX, Up 4, WZ Down 3

September 25, 2018 07:25 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Mostly lower:  CZ, -$.0125; SX, +$.0375; WZU, -$.0550; KWZ, 0$.0450
  • MACRO:  Global stocks work higher following inking of South Korea/U.S trade deal; some think China may wait until a new U.S. administration assumes office to negotiate.  ASIA: Mostly lower:Nikkei, +0.29%; Shanghai, -0.58%; Hang Seng, closed.  EUROPE: Firmer:DAX, +0.28%; FTSE, +0.29%; CAC, +0.23%.  WALL STREET: Futures suggest a positive start: DOW, +38; S&P, +4.25; NAS, +3.25. EXTERNALS: Oct crude: +$0.40 @ $72.48; Dec Gold: +$0.20 @ $1,205;Dec $ Index-0.01 @ 93.760 

·        T-storm Weather: Favorable conditions for planting and harvesting continue from / near Kansas through Illinois over the next week, but less-so with northward and eastward extent before a wetter period begins in all areas in approximately one week. More specifically, scattered showers affect the Corn Belt and adjacent areas of the Plains through today as a cool front passes.  Rainfall amounts are forecast at 0.20” to 0.40”

·       CZ, dn $.0125 @ $3.5925; CH, dn $.0125 @ $3.7125.  The funds bought an estimated 5 K on Monday              

  • SX, up $.0375 @ $8.4475; SF, up $.0375 @ $8.59.  Funds sold 3 K SB, 2 K SBM, bot 3 K SBO.  Board Crush: $1.40, +5, LY: $.83
  • WZ, dn $.0525 @ $5.2175; WH, dn $.0525 @ $5.4025.  Fund buying at the beginning of the week totaled 4 K         

CORN/SORGHUM

·     &n​bsp; U.S. corn crop is rated 69% Good/Excellent versus 68% last week and well above 61% last year.  Corn mature is 72% vs. 49% last year and the 5-year avg. of 53%.  Corn harvested is 16% v. 10% last year and the 5-year avg. of 11%

·       ATI Research: Updated U.S. corn ending stocks estimate for 2018/19 is 1.707 bbu vs. September USDA est. of 1.774

·       U.S. sorghum rated 55% Good/Excellent vs. 53% last week & 64% last year.  Harvest: 30% v. 32% for last year & avg.

  • T-storm Weather: Some showers and thunderstorms affect the northern half of the U.S. Corn Belt within Thu.-Sun., but not areas to the south.  A stormier period follows, turning most areas wet next week (Sep. 30 - Oct. 8)

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybean crop is rated 68% Good/Excellent vs. 67% last week and 60% last year.  Dropping leaves is 71% vs. 60% last year & the 5-year avg of 57%.  Soybeans harvested is 14% vs. 9% last year and well above the 5-year avg. of 8%

·       ATI Research: Updated U.S. soybean ending stocks est. for 2018/19 is 1.133 bbu vs. September USDA est. of 0.845

  • T-storm Weather: Several frosts & freezes affect soybeans across northern quarter to third of U.S. Corn Belt & Plains over the next two weeks, but are not expected to reach further to the south as minimums remain above 36°F (2°C)
  • ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to continue to range from 15-20 mbu per week short-term

·       U.S. winter wheat planted: 28% v. 22% last year & 5-year avg. of 26%; KS & OK pace 5 points above avg., respectively

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLX18+$0.40 @ $72.48; EBX, +$0.60 @ $81.80; EBX-QCLX,+$0.19; RBX, +0.0104; NGX, +.0018HOX, +.0167

·       Chicago ethanol eased $.0055 to $1.2520; basis levels versus Chicago were firmer—New York @+$0.1055, up $.0030; Gulf @ +$0.0955, +$.0080; Dallas, +$0.0380, +$.0005; Tampa, +$0.1630, +$.0055 and LA, +$0.2780, up $.0055

·       Ethanol RINs continue to slide: 2017’s @ 8 -10, down 1 ¾; 2018’s, 13 ½ to 15 ½, down 1 ½        

·       The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol spread gained $.0386 on Monday to close at+$.80470 per gallon 

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                        &nbs​p;             

  • Choice boxed beef values were $1.36 higher on Monday at $206.16 and are up 12-cents compared to last week
  • 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price eased $0.05 last week to $110.61/cwt but is $2.11 higher v. last year
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased 86-cents on Mon. to $78.70 and is $4.01 higher vs. a week ago
  • Current nearby board hog crush value is $34.75/cwt vs. last week’s $35.81, last month’s $31.07 & last year’s $31.57  

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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