HIGHLIGHTS
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MARKET TREND (4:40 am)—Mostly lower: CH, +$.0175; SF, -$.01; WH, -$.0225; KWH, -$.0075
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MACRO: Congress/White House heading for a funding stand-off over Wall; government shut-down looms? Asia: Mostly lower--Nikkei, -1.11%; Shanghai, -0.79%; Hang Seng, +0.51%. EUROPE: Lower, again—DAX, -0.83%; FTSE, -0.73%; CAC, -1.28%. WALL STREET: Futures heading south: DOW, -152; S&P, -16.75; NAS, -14.60. EXTERNALS: Feb crude: -$0.17 @ $45.71; Dec 19 Gold: -$8.60 @ $1,290; Mar $ Index, +.352 @ 96.080
· T-storm Weather: Dry and hot weather break from south to north across Brazil over the next week, initially in southern areas through Sunday as a cool front shifts northward, then from Dec. 25-27 forward in northern areas. Therefore, the coverages of 14-day dryness are likely to diminish, though follow-up rains will be needed to diminish 30-day dryness. In Argentina, five to seven days of mainly dry weather are forecast; a cool pattern generally dominates, however, limiting weather concerns
· CH, up $.0175 @ $3.77; CK, up $.02 @ $3.85. Heavy fund selling as macro/political environment declines, 15 K
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SF, dn $.01 @ $8.9250; SH, dn $.01 @ $9.0525. Funds: sold 6 SB, 0 SBM & 4 SBO. Board Crush: $0.94, +4; LY: $1.02
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WH, dn $.0225 @ $5.2125; WK, dn $.0175 @ $5.2925. The funds were even in Thursday trading
CORN/SORGHUM
· Unshipped 18/19 export sales of U.S. corn as of Dec. 13 were 509 mbu, which is down 18% from 624 mbu last year
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Consultant: The situation for the corn crop in Argentina continues to be just average; some of the early corn is still recouping from earlier frosts and hail storms. Yields could go either way depending on future weather
· T-storm Weather: Mainly dry weather impact Argentina corn through Dec. 26. A number of systems pass Dec. 27-28 forward, producing at least some rain. Temperatures remain considerably cooler than normal over the next 10 days
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ATI Research: The USDA last week pegged a record 2018 corn crop for Ukraine. Corn exports from Ukraine in January-May of 2019 could run 20-50 mbu more per month than a year ago, providing sustained competition for the U.S.
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
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Unshipped 18/19 export sales of U.S. soybeans as of Dec. 13 were 445 mbu—down 11% from 503 mbu last year
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NWS Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates no development of drought for main U.S. soybean areas through March 31
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ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports remains 35-45 mbu per week
· Consultant: In Argentina, farmers in core soybean production areas are close to wrapping up their full-season planting
· Unshipped 18/19 export sales of U.S. all wheat as of Dec. 13 were 200 mbu—down 9% from 219 mbu last year
· NWS Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates no drought development for main U.S. HRW wheat areas through March 31
ENERGY
· Weaker: CLG19, -$0.17 @ $45.7; EBG, -$0.48 @ $53.87; EBG-QCLG, -$0.25; RBG, -.0041; NGG, +.054; HOG, -.0095
· Chicago ethanol slipped 1 3/8’s to $1.20875; basis values were firmer in all markets: New York, -$.00375 @ $.16125; Gulf, +$.00375 @ $.09125; Dallas, +$.00875 @ $.10625; Tampa, +$.00875 @ $.25125; and LA, +$.01375 @ $.22125
· Ethanol RINs were mixed: 2017’s, -1.00 @ 17-21; 2018’s, +1.00 @ 22-23; 2019’s, -0.75 @ 25-26  
· The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread lost $.0449 on Thursday, to +$.0934/gal
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY
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Choice boxed beef increased 77-cents on Thursday to $212.47 but is unchanged compared to last week
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Cattle on Feed: Dec. 1 on feed, 101.9% (101.8% avg est); Nov. placed, 95.1% (93.4%); Nov. Market, 101.4% (101.0%)
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USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout firmed $1.07 on Thursday to $69.30 but is $2.56 lower vs. a week ago
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Hogs and Pigs report: All hogs & pigs, 101.9% (102.7% avg. est); breeding, 102.4% (102.8%); market, 101.9% (102.6%)
Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN. T-storm Weather
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