HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Mostly lower: CH, -$.0075; SF, unch; WH, -$.0525; KWH, -$.0425 
• MACRO:  Market focus this morning is not so much on a likely ¼ point Fed rate hike but its comments going forward.  Asia: Mostly lower--Nikkei, -0.60%; Shanghai, -1.05%; Hang Seng, +0.20%.  EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.60%; FTSE, +0.85%; CAC, +0.51%.  WALL STREET: There is hope!  DOW, +198; S&P, +20.75; NAS, +56.00.  EXTERNALS: Jan crude:+$0.20 @ $45.44; Dec19 Gold: -$0.70 @ $1,283; Mar $ Index, -.290 @ 96.280

·       T-storm Weather: In southern Brazil, scattered thunderstorms recur over the next few days,  Better-organized rainfall holds until Thu.-Sat., however, marking the onset of a wetter and cooler period for most first-crop corn and soybeans.  In Argentina, a few thunderstorms affect central and southern areas Thursday, but a drier period is underway in most areas (except north).  A stormier period returns in 7 to 10 days when additional systems pass, maintaining adequate soil moisture into late-month

·       CH, dn $.0075 @ $3.8475; CK, dn $.01 @ $3.9250.  Modest fund buying, 2 K on improving export hopes            

• SF, unch @ $9.0775; SH, dn $.0025 @ $9.2050.  Funds: bot 3 SB, 2 SBM & 3 SBO—PRC. Board Crush: $0.88, +3; LY: $1.03 
• WH, dn $.0575 @ $5.27; WK, dn $.0575 @ $5.3350.  Funds sold 3 K as foreign prices ebbed           

 

      CORN/SORGHUM<​/p>

·       Consultant: Argentina corn production estimate for 2018/19 is unchanged this week at 41.0 MMT vs. 32.0 MMT last year.  The early planted corn is now entering into its critical reproductive period with 24% of the corn pollinating

• T-storm Weather: In Argentina, another 1.00”-2.00” of rain is expected in northern areas through Fri., but just north of concentrated corn production.  In contrast, central & southern areas will only see light rain (0.20”-0.50”) on Thu.
• March 2019 corn futures on Tue. closed at $3.85 ½--the highest settlement price for the contract since Nov. 5

·       Ethanol margins: -$0.06 per gallon—up vs. -$0.10 last week but well below +$0.24 in 2017.  EIA report at 9:30 am CST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. is steady at 57.0 MMT.  Planting progress is at 68% v. 67% for the 5-year avg. 

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, another 1.00”-2.00” of rain is expected in northern areas through Fri., but just north of concentrated soybean production.  In contrast, central and southern areas only see light rain (0.20”-0.50”) on Thu.

• ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. all wheat exports is 15-20 mbu per week

·       T-storm Weather: A strong system Dec. 26-27 likely generates heavy rain across wheat in southern half of U.S. Plains

ENERGY

·       Firm:  CLF19, +$0.20 @ $46.44; EBG, +$0.17 @ $56.43; EBG-QCLG, +$0.14; RBF, +.0032; NGF, -.087; HOF, +.0127

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -2.4 (+3.5); Gasoline, +1.2 (+1.8); Distillates, +0.6 (-3.4).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.042 mbpd (range: 1.025-1.061).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 23.223 mb (range 23.000-23.500)

·       Chicago ethanol reversed course, losing $.0350 to $1.2325; basis values firmed: New York, +$.04 @ $.1625; Gulf, +$.04 @ $.0975; Dallas, +$.03 @ $.0975; Tampa, +$.04 @ $.2525; and LA, +$.01500 @ $.2075    

·       Ethanol RINs eased: 2017’s, -0.50 @ 19-21; 2018’s, -0.50 @ 21-22; 2019’s, -0.75 @ 23-25                            

​ ·       The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread plunged $.0609 to +$.0905/gal  

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY            &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;

• Choice boxed beef firmed a penny on Tuesday to $212.68 but is still down $1.78 compared to last week
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $0.03 v. last week at $118.14/cwt, but is $1.57 lower v. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout increased 18-cents on Tue. to $70.63 but is still 72-cents lower vs. a week ago
• Trade est. for Dec. 20 USDA Quarterly Hogs & Pigs: All Hogs & Pigs, 102.7%; Breeding, 102.8%, Marketing, 102.6%

Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN. T-storm Weather