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MARKET TREND Mostly lower CH down 1, SF down 4, WH down 4

November 30, 2017 07:22 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Mostly lower: CH: down $.0075; SF: down $.01; WH: down $.02; KWH: up $.0025 

·       MACRO.  China manufacturing activity picks up in November, signaling improving domestic and global demand.  OPEC meets.  ASIA—Mostly weaker: Nikkei, +0.57%; Shanghai, -0.61%; Hang Seng, -1.51%.  EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +0.82%; FTSE, +0.27%; CAC, +0.54%.  WALL STREET—Higher, Still—DOW futures, +86; S&P, +7.50; NAS, +16.25EXTERNALS: $ Index+.233 @ 93.340; Gold-$0.90 @ $1,281; Jan crude: +$0.50 @ $57.80/bl.  Del’y: SBM, 60; SBO, 179; C, 1,204; HRW, 55; SRW, 2,000

  • T-storm Weather: Areas of rain affect the western third of Argentina's growing belt through Sat.  Conversely, eastern Argentina and South Brazil only receive some thunderstorms when the wave passes over Sat.-Sun., preceded and followed by cool and dry weather.  Central and northern areas of Brazil receive heavy rainfall over the next two weeks as cool fronts continually dissipate, producing heavy rain for key corn and soybean areas of the Center-West and Southeast into at least mid-December
  • CH, down $.0075 @ $3.53; CK, down $.0050 @ $3.61.  The funds bought 4 K yesterday     
  • SF, down $.01 @ $9.9150; SH, down $.01 @ $10.0325.  Funds: bot 1 SB, 2 SBM, 0 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.01, +$.03; LY, $.76  
  • WH, down $.02 @ $4.3275; WK, steady @ $4.46.  Fund buying totaled 3 K at mid-week      

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 28-43 mbu for 17/18 corn

·       Consultant: Farmers in Brazil significantly reduced their full-season corn acreage (which is ~25% of Brazil’s corn crop) and they are expected to also reduce their safrinha(double crop) acreage as well (which is ~75% of production)

  • T-storm Weather: Widely scattered rain across eastern corn areas of Argentina, South Brazil produce generalized rain of 0.25”-0.75” Sat.-Mon., but at least 5-7 days of drying follow.  Normal rain over 10 days is ~1.50” so dryness persists
  • Ethanol grind: Total of 1,066,000 barrels/day for week end Nov. 24—down 8 thou vs. prior week but up 5.3% v. 2016

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 29-44 for 17/18 soybeans; 100-300 for 17/18 soymeal; and 0-22 for 17/18 soyoil

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean production est. for 2017/18 is steady this week at 55.0 MMT vs. 57.8 MMT last year

  • T-storm Weather: Frequent thunderstorms and heavy rainfall (3.50”-7.00”) over the next two week impacts central and northern soybean areas of Brazil, marking a wet start to the growing season in the Center-West and Southeast

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 9-17 mbu for 17/18 all wheat

·       T-storm Weather: In Australia, heavy rainfall of 1.25” to 2.50” through Saturday stops remaining wheat harvesting in South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLF18+$0.50 @ $57.80; EBF+$0.97 @ $64.08; EBF-QCLF+$0.47; RBF,+.0203; NGF, -.090; HOF, +.0172

·       On Wednesday, cash ethanol markets were mostly weaker: Chicago was quoted at $1.35, down $0.01125; Basis to Chicago—New York, +11; Gulf, +8 ½; Dallas, +4; Tampa, +18 ½; and LA, +18 ½

·       On Wed., ethanol RINs firmed.: 2016’s up ¾ at 89-89 ½; 2017’s added ¾ to 89 ½-90 ¼; & 2018’s up ¾ at 89 ½-90 ¼

·       The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread lost $.0361 yesterday, closing at +$.37890/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                       &n​bsp;             

  • Choice boxed beef values declined $2.08 on Wednesday to $206.55, and is $2.46 lower vs. last week
  • U.S. cattle slaughter for Wednesday was estimated at 119,000 head vs. 119,000 last week and 115,000 last year 

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained 83-cents on Wed. to $82.71, and is up $1.88 vs. a week ago 

  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.07 on Wed. to $62.96.  December futures fell $0.675 but are $2.115 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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