HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Mostly higher:  CZ, +$.0125; SF, +$.0275; WZ, -$.0025; KWZ, +$.0125 
• MACRO: Trade fears continue to undermine the market; White House comments ahead of the meeting with Chinese Chairman Xi suggests tariff plans are not likely to change.  Asia: Mostly weaker--Nikkei, +0.64%; Shanghai, -0.04%; Hang Seng, -0.17%.  EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.39%; FTSE, -0.32%; CAC, -0.32%.  WALL STREET: Futures are lower:DOW, -76; S&P, -10; NAS, -40.50.  EXTERNALS: Jan crude: +$0.24 @ $51.87; Dec Gold: +$1.30 @ $1,224; Dec $ Index, +0.096 @ 97.075

·       T-storm Weather: In Brazil, widespread rain continues through Fri., leaving soil profiles moist in most areas.  A drier period follows for the southern half of the growing belt, but temps will be seasonable to cool, & widespread rain occurs to the north.  In Argentina, scattered thunderstorms occur through Fri., producing light totals south & moderate totals north, & ultimately leaving soil profiles moist through end of the month; 5-7 days of dry & seasonable to cool weather follow for the first week of December

·       CZ, up $.0125 @ $3.5725; CH, up $.010 @ $3.69.  The funds began the week by liquidating 6 K    

• SF, up $.0250 @ $8.6475; SH, up $.0250 @ $8.7875.  Funds: sellers: 4 K SB; 8 K SBO; 6 SBM. Board Crush: $1.08, +4; LY: $.98 
• WZ, dn $.0025 @ $5.0725; WH, dn $.0050 @ $5.1350.  The funds were buyers of 4 K on Monday          

CORN/SORGHUM

·       U.S. corn harvest is 94%, unchanged from last but below the 5-year average of 96%

·       T-storm Weather: Dryness is not an issue in Argentina with at least 98% of first-crop corn having been near or wetter than normal over the last 30-, 60-, and 90-day periods.  Dryness concerns are also low in Brazil for first-crop corn

·       Consultant: Brazil 2018/19 corn production estimate is unchanged this week at 96.0 MMT vs. 81.0 MMT last year

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 18/19 U.S. corn is 1.970 bbu vs. November USDA estimate of 1.736

·       U.S. sorghum harvest progress is 89% vs. 94% for both last year and the 5-year average

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybean harvest is 94% v. 99% for last year and the 5-year average of 98%

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks est. for 18/19 U.S. soybean is 1.031 bbu vs. November USDA estimate of 0.955

·       Consultant: Brazil 2018/19 soybean production est. is raised 1.3 MMT this week to 122.0 MMT (119.5 MMT last year)

·       T-storm Weather: In Brazil, only ~9% of soybeans were drier than normal over the last 60- and 90-day periods.  In Argentina, only 1% of beans were drier than normal over the last 60- and 90-day periods

·       Final U.S. winter wheat crop condition ratings for 2018 peg Good/Excellent at 55% vs. 56% last week & 50% last year

·       T-storm Weather: Most U.S. HRW and SRW wheat will be dry through Friday; a stormy period then follows Dec. 1-8

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLF19, +0.24 @ $51.87; EBF,+$0.20 @ $60.68; EBF-QCLF, $0.00;RBF, +.0044; NGF, -.085; HOF, +.0071

·       Chicago ethanol lost $.01 to $1.23875; basis values were mostly steady: New York, +.0025 @ $.12375; Gulf, +.0225 @ $.11375; Dallas, unch @ $.10125; Tampa, -.0150 @ $.22625; and LA, +.065 @ $.20125    

·       Ethanol RINs firmed: 2017’s, +1 ½ @ 9-11; 2018’s, +1 @ 10 ½ -11 ¾ 2019’s, +3/4’s @ 13 ½ -15 ½                       

·       The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread—volatile—lost $.1164 Friday; widened $.0733 to +$.18860/gal Monday

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                           ​;           

• Choice boxed beef increased 60-cents on Monday to $214.45 and is $1.06 higher vs. a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $2.39 v. last week at $115.39/cwt, but is $3.58 lower v. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout firmed $1.04 on Monday to $66.46 but is 77-cents lower vs. last week 
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $37.13/cwt vs. last week’s $35.64, last month’s $35.45 & last year’s $39.50           

Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN. T-storm Weather