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MARKET TREND Mostly Higher CN, Up 2, SN, Unchanged, WN, Up 7

June 5, 2018 07:03 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Mostly Higher: CN, +$.0175; SN, -$.0075; WN, +$.0650; KWN, +$.06 
  • MACRO:  Global equity markets are mostly higher, not much in the way of news to report.  Asia—Higher: Nikkei, +0.28%; Shanghai, +0.75%; Hang Seng, +0.31%. EUROPE: Mostly higher: DAX, +0.85%; FTSE, -0.56%; CAC, +0.47%.  WALL STREET: Futures are slightly higher: DOW, +20; S&P, +2.50; NAS, +17.50.  EXTERNALS: July crude: -$0.20 @ $64.54; Aug Gold: -$2.70 @ $1,295

·       T-storm Weather: Heat envelops the Plains and western Corn Belt the next few days, then lingers for at least one week.  Temps will not be as warm to the east as cooler air occasionally expels outward from southeast Canada, causing wider temperature fluctuations.  Waves of energy flow along the edge of heat and into moderately-unstable air Wed.-Sun., triggering thunderstorms in varying areas at varying times.  Additional thunderstorms most likely follow next week as a similar setup continues

·       CN, up $.0175 @ $3.8250; CU, up $.0225 @ $3.92.  Heavy fund selling on Monday, estimated at 40 K                 

  • SN, dn $.0075 @ $10.01; SQ, dn $.0050 @ $10.0625. Funds: Sold 15 SB, 6 SBM; 4 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.50 , +$.05; LY: $.80
  • WN, up $.0650 @ $5.1175; WU, up $.0675 @ $5.2950.  The funds began the week selling 10 K                                   

CORN/SORGHUM

·       U.S. corn crop is rated 78% Good/Excellent versus 79% last week and 68% for the same period last year.  Highest ratings are being seen in Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minnesota, Ohio, Iowa and Illinois

·       ATI Research: Updated yield est. for the 2018 U.S. corn crop is 176.0 bpa versus the May USDA projection of 174.0

·       U.S. corn was 97% planted as of June 3, versus 95% for both  last year and the 5-year average 

·       T-storm Weather: It is most probable for at least some thunderstorms to continue next week, making near- to above-normal rain of 1.00"-2.00" probable through mid-month for most U.S. corn, including a mix of drier and wetter areas

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

  • U.S. soybean planting progress is estimated at 87% compared to 8`% last year and the 5-year average of 75%.  Emergence is pegged at 68% vs. 55% last year and the average of 52%
  • ATI Research: Updated yield est. for the 2018 U.S. soybean crop is 49.1 bpa versus the May USDA projection of 48.5
  • T-storm Weather: First round of rain affects northwest third of Corn Belt & adjacent areas of Dakotas & NE Wed.-Thu
  • USDA Crop Progress: Winter wheat Good/Excellent down a point to 37%; ATI production model fell 1 mbu to 1.171 bbu (HRW, 616; SRW, 317; & White, 237).  Spring wheat G/E at 70% vs. 55% last year; ATI HRS crop model is 546 mbu
  • T-storm Weather: Light rain affects Australia wheat near-term, but drought continues from a lack of heavy totals

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLN18-$.20 @ $64.54; EBQ, -$.95 @ $74.34; EBQ-QCLQ, -$0.73RBN-.0258;NGN, -.013HON, -.0209

·       On Monday, cash ethanol markets were lower: Chicago was quoted at $1.415, down $0.019; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.11; Gulf, +$0.0975; Dallas, +$0.0625; Tampa, +$0.1925; and LA, +$0.2425 

·       Ethanol RINs were notably weaker on Monday: 2017’s fell 3 ¼ to 13 ½-15 ½ and 2018’s were 3 ¾ lower at 18-20

·       The July RBOB/June ethanol spread gained $.0110, closing at +$.6924/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                           &nb​sp;         

  • Choice boxed beef values firmed 4-cents on Monday to $227.57 and are a penny higher vs. a week ago
  • 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $0.49 v. last week at $110.55/cwt, but is down $25.72 v. last year
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased $1.30 on Monday to $76.37 and is $1.90 higher vs. last week
  • Current nearby board hog crush value is $43.19/cwt vs. last week’s $40.74, last month’s $39.78 & last year’s $50.95

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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