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MARKET TREND Mostly Higher CN, Up 2, SN, Down 7, WN, Up 3

May 16, 2018 07:56 AM

Shonkwiler, Larry

Attachments5:33 AM (2 hours ago)
 
to MorningJim
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Mostly  Higher: CN, +$.0050; SN, -$.0575; WN, +$.02; KWN, +$.0275. 
  • MACRO:  Ideas the summit with North Korea may be put on hold versus solid retail sales & rising interest rates.  Asia—Mostly Lower: Nikkei, -0.44%; Shanghai, -0.70%;Hang Seng, -0.23%.  EUROPE: Mostly Higher: DAX, +0.23%; FTSE, +0.02%; CAC, -0.08%.  WALL STREET: Futures are mostly weaker: DOW, -14; S&P, -0.50; NAS,+1.00.  EXTERNALS: June crude: +$0.03 @ $71.34; Aug Gold: +$0.70 @ $1,297; $ Index+.199 @ 92.935

·       T-storm Weather: In central U.S., except for a few thunderstorms across the southeast third through today, most areas will be dry & mild into at least Thu.  Rain follows across northwest half of central U.S. Thu.-Sat., initially in the Dakotas & Nebraska, then spreading into Iowa & Minnesota Fri.-Sat.  Some rain then reaches the central & eastern Corn Belt, but totals will mostly be light.  Separately, a large system clips the eastern Corn Belt with significant rain late in the week & weekend, especially across Ohio

·       CN, up $.0050 @ $4.0275; CU, up $.0075 @ $4.1125.  The funds bought 8 K yesterday                     

  • SN, dn $.0575 @ $10.13; SQ, dn $.0525 @ $10.1675. Funds: Sold 5 SB, 7 SBM & 1 SBO. Board crush:  $1.65, -14; LY: $.84
  • WN, up $.02 @ $4.9550; WU, up $.0150 @ $5.1125.  Fund buying: 2 K                              

CORN/SORGHUM

  • ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. corn planting progress increases approx. 18% fromMay 13-20 to 81%
  • T-storm Weather: In Brazil, 1.00"-2.00" of rain affects southern third of second-crop (safrinha) corn the next 24 hours, but more-so Fri. when strong cool front passes.  A few thunderstorms also occur to the north, but unlikely heavy rain

·       Consultant: Argentina corn crop est. steady at 32.0 MMT with a lower bias going forward.  Although recent heavy rain has slowed corn harvest to a crawl (~33% complete nationwide), yield losses so far are not believed to be substantial

  • Ethanol margins: $0.30 per gallon—up vs. $0.26 last week and above $0.24 in 2017.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT        

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

  • ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. soybean planting progress increases approx. 18% from May 13-20 to 44%

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop estimate is lowered 1.0 MMT this week to 37.0 MMT; lower bias going forward

·       T-storm Weather: A few showers impact un-harvested Argentina soybeans next 10 days, but most areas will be dry

·       ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. spring wheat planting progress increases approx. 13% from May 13-20 to 80%

  • CBT July 2018 wheat futures on Tue. fell to $4.86 ¼—lowest price since April 25—but closed up $0.02 ¼ at $4.93 ½

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLM18+$.03@$71.34; EBN, -$.29@$78.14; EBN-QCLN, -$0.28RBM+.0045;NGM, -.018HOM, -.0049

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -0.4 (+4.9); Gasoline, -1.2 (-3.4); Distillates, -1.4 (-0.8).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.054 mil barrels/day (range 1.045-1.060).  Avg. est. for ethanol stocks is 22.1 mil barrels (range 21.8-22.2)

·       On Tuesday, cash ethanol markets were higher: Chicago was quoted at $1.4675, up $0.01125; Basis to Chicago—New York, +12; Gulf, +10 ¼; Dallas, +3 ¾; Tampa, +16 ¾; and LA, +23 ½

·       On Tuesday, ethanol RINs were weaker: 2017’s declined 2 to 27 ½-28 ½; and 2018’s eased 1 ¼ to 33-34

·       The June RBOB/June ethanol spread snugged in $.0084 yesterday to +$.71380/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY          &nb​sp;                     &​nbsp;    

  • Choice boxed beef values eased 48-cents on Tuesday to $231.64, but are still 71-cents higher compared to last week
  • June live cattle futures on Tuesday closed at $102.975—the lowest settlement price for the contract since April 11
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased 55-cents on Tue. to $73.38, and is $2.75 higher than a week ago
  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.58 on Tuesday to $65.23.  June futures fell $1.425 but are still $9.495 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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