HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Mixed: CZ, +$.0050; SX, +$.0150; WZ, -$.0175; KWZ, -$.0200 
• MACRO:  Global equity markets show signs of stabilizing after another volatile day on Wall Street Monday, initiated by a slide in tech stocks.  Asia: Mostly higher--Nikkei, +1.45%; Shanghai, +1.02; Hang Seng, -0.91%.  EUROPE: Mostly weaker--DAX, -0.58%; FTSE, +0.03%; CAC, -0.47%.  WALL STREET: Futures are uncertain: DOW, +14; S&P, +1.00;NAS, -9.50.  EXTERNALS: Dec crude: -$0.27 @ $66.77; Dec Gold: -$1.90@ $1,226; Dec $ Index, +0.195 @ 96.545.

·      T-storm Weather: A series of systems move across the central U.S. from today forward.  Heavy rain results across the southeast half of the central U.S., slowing and stopping planting across the Delta and southeast half of the Corn Belt, especially from rain and thunderstorms Tue.-Wed., then again around Sun.-Mon., and again a few days later.  Pockets of light rain also affect other areas, but lower humidities in the Plains and western Corn Belt produce lesser totals

·      CZ, up $.0050 @ $3.6725; CH, up $.0025 @ $3.7950.  Funds sold 4 K on Monday  

• SX, up $.0150 @ $8.4050; SF, up $.0150 @ $8.5375.  Funds sold 8 K SB, 3 K SBO, bot 1 K SBM.  Board Crush: $1.46, +5, LY: $.96
• WZ, dn $.0175 @ $5.0350; WH, dn $.0225 @ $5.2375.  Funds buy 2 K to open the week  

CORN/SORGHUM

·      U.S. corn harvest is 63% vs. 52% last year and equal to the 5-year avg. of 63%

·      ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 2018/19 U.S. corn is 2.029 bbu versus October USDA est. of 1.813

·      U.S. sorghum harvest progress is 53% vs. 57% last year and the 5-year avg. of 66%

·      Through Oct. 30, the 2018 crop insurance harvest price for December 2018 corn futures has averaged $3.6855

·      T-storm Weather: Dryness is not a problem in Brazil; e.g. only 18% of first-crop corn was drier than normal over the last 14 days

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      U.S. soybean harvest is 72% vs. 81% last year & behind the 5-year avg. of 81%

·      ATI Research: Updated ending stocks est. for 2018/19 U.S. soybeans is 1.137 bbu versus October USDA est. of 0.885

• Through Oct. 30, the 2018 crop insurance harvest price for November 2018 soybean futures has averaged $8.6183

·      T-storm Weather: Dryness not a problem in Brazil; e.g. only 17% of soybeans were drier than normal the last 14 days

• ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to range from 15-20 mbu per week short-term

·      U.S. winter wheat planting is 78% v. 8% last year & 5-year avg. of 85%; Kansas at 76% v. 5-year avg. of 89%.  First winter wheat crop condition ratings of the season for 2019 were released Mon.—53% Good/Excellent v. 52% last year

ENERGY

·      Lower: CLZ18, -$0.27 @ $66.77; EBZ, -$0.43 @ $76.91; EBZ-QCLZ, -$0.16;RBZ, -0.0038; NGZ, -.0083; HOZ, -.014

·      Chicago ethanol was $.00625 lower @ $1.26875; basis levels vs Chicago firmer—New York, +.00375 @ $.11375; Gulf, +.00125 @ $.11125; Dallas, +.00125 @ $.07625; Tampa, +0.00625 @ $.20625 and LA, +.00625 @ $.16625     

·      Ethanol RINs were weaker: 2017’s, -1/2 @ 6 ½ 7 ½; 2018’s, -1/2 @ 7 ½ -8 ½  ; 2019’s, -3/8 @ 11 ½ -12 ½                   

·      The Nov RBOB/Nov ethanol spread closed up $.0139 at +$.5319 per gallon on Monday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                     &nbs​p; 

• Choice boxed beef increased 29-cents on Monday to $213.76 and is up $4.48 vs. a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $3.76 v. last week at $113.81/cwt, but is $3.17 lower v. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 38-cents on Monday to $75.65 but is down $1.40 vs. last week
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $35.45/cwt vs. last week’s $28.16, last month’s $35.72 & last year’s $40.42

Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm- Weather