HIGHLIGHTS
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MARKET TREND—Mixed: CZ, +$.0050; SX, -$.0025; WZU, -$.1425; KWZ, -$.15
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MACRO: Slowing Chinese mfg activity-14 month Aug low and uncertainty over a U.S./Canada trade agreement weigh: Nikkei, -0.05%; Shanghai, +1.10%; Hang Seng, +0.94%. EUROPE: Weaker: DAX, -0.82%; FTSE, -0.16%; CAC, -1.03%. WALL STREET: Futures are mostly lower: DOW, -16; S&P, +1.25; NAS, +10.00. EXTERNALS: Oct crude: +$1.25 @ $71.05; Dec Gold: -$5.70 @ $1,201; Dec $ Index, +0.432 @ 95.105. DELY: SBM, 161; SBO, 913; C, 137; ETOH, 15; O, 14; SB, 511; HRW, 376; SRW, 563
· T-storm Weather: Heavy rain affects most corn, soybean, and winter wheat areas of the central / southern Plains and Corn Belt over the next week. Widespread rainfall of 1.00” to 4.00” results with highest totals generally from northeast KS and southeast NE and points east through wettest areas of IA, MO, IL, and WI. Therefore, additional flooding is likely to develop within wettest areas of each state as rains continue, but not elsewhere from lesser totals and a lack of unusual totals over the last two weeks.
· CZ, up $.0050 @ $3.6550; CH, up $.0025 @ $3.7750. Heavy fund buying on Friday at an estimated 15 K
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SX, dn $.0025 @ $8.4325; SF, dn $.0025 @ $8.5650. Funds: Bot 6 SB, 3 SBM, even SBO. Board Crush: $1.46, -9, LY: $.90
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WZ, dn $.1425 @ $5.3125; WH, down $.1325 @ $5.5225. The funds closed out the week buying 7 K
CORN/SORGHUM
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Consultant: USDA Crop Progress report to peg U.S. corn Good/Excellent 67-69% v. 68% last week and 61% last year
· T-storm Weather: Temps will continue to average slightly to moderately above normal through at least mid-month as Arctic air remains locked to the north, limiting potential for early frost/freeze over next 2 weeks in key U.S. corn areas
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ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. corn dented gains ~18% from Aug. 26-Sep. 2 to 60%. However, corn dented this year as of Aug. 26 was already 61%, confirming the rapid development of this year’s crop
· The USDA this week will complete its survey in preparation for release of the next Crop Production report on Sep. 12
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
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Consultant: USDA Crop Progress report to peg U.S. soybean Good/Excellent 65-67% v. 66% last week & 61% last year
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T-storm Weather: The unusually-wet setup across U.S. soybean areas breaks from west to east over Sat.-Mon. (Sep. 8-10) as a strong system and cool front disrupt the upper-level high in the Southeast; a less active pattern follows
· USDA Fats and Oils report at 2:00 pm: Avg. trade est. for July soybean crush is 177.1 mbu (range 171.0-179.3)
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 21.2 mbu needed; 17.9 last week
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T-storm Weather: Some rain affects wheat across eastern Australia through Friday (but far from enough to reduce drought, and dry weather follows). Drying also continues in Argentina as wheat growth continues
ENERGY
· Lower: CLV18, +$1.25 @ $71.05; EBX, +$1.03 @ $79.18; EBX-QCLX, -$0.23; RBV, +0.0551; NGV, -.057; HOV, +.0563
· On Friday, cash ethanol markets were firmer: Chicago was quoted at $1.29875, up $0.0575; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.08; Gulf, +$0.09125; Dallas, +$0.01125; Tampa, +$0.11125; and LA, +$0.20125
· Ethanol RINs were higher on Friday: 2017’s firmed ¼ to 15-15 ½; and 2018’s increased ¼ to 20 ¾-21 ¼
· The October RBOB/September ethanol spread lost $.1945 on Friday as corn rallied, closing at $.7170/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
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Choice boxed beef values fell $2.04 on Friday to $209.69 and are $3.63 lower vs. a week ago
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Moderate cash cattle trading develop on Friday in the North; most sales were marked at $170—down $2 vs. last week
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USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained 21-cents on Fri. to $65.90 and is up $2.75 compared to last week
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CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.22 on Friday to $45.63. October futures gained $1.30 and are $4.795 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather