HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Mixed: CZ, -$.0150; SX, -$.0225; WZU, +$.01; KWZ, +$.0175 
• MACRO:  Kudlow says U.S./China trade deal is “not imminent”; Yale econ-type Shiller draws parallel between current bull market and the excesses of the 1920s.  ASIA: Mixed: Nikkei, +0.10%; Shanghai, closed;Hang Seng, -2.38%.  EUROPE: Lower:  DAX, -0.86%; FTSE, -0.58%; CAC, -1.06%.  WALL STREET: Futures are lower: DOW, -80; S&P, -8.00; NAS,-31.75.  EXTERNALS: Oct crude: unch @ $75.30; Dec Gold: +$3.20 @ $1,195; Dec $ Index, +0.381 @ 95.310 

·        T-storm Weather: The central U.S. will remain divided by unusual coldness to the northwest & unusual warmth to the southeast over the next 7 to 10 days, followed by a cooler period.  The setup is conducive to significant rainfall across a wide area through the period, initially from some heavy thunderstorms within the northern Corn Belt today (especially in / near eastern IA, northern IL, & WI) as a warm front shifts northward, then across a wider area when a number of systems pass late-week forward

·       CZ, dn $.0150 @ $3.6425; CH, dn $.0150 @ $3.7625.  Reverse engines, Funds buy back the 15 K sold on Friday                

• SX, dn $.0225 @ $8.5550; SF, dn $.0275 @ $8.69.  Funds bought 9 K SB, 6 K SBM, 5 K SBO.  Board Crush: $1.44, +2, LY: $.78
• WZ, up $.01 @ $5.1025; WH, up $.0150 @ $5.3025.  The funds were limited buyers of 1 K on Monday             

 CORN/SORGHUM

·       U.S. corn crop is rated 69% Good/Excellent, unchanged from last week but above 63% last year.  Corn mature is 86% vs. 66% last year and the 5-year avg. of 71%.  Corn harvest is 26% vs. 16% last year and the 5-year avg. of 17%

·       ATI Research: Ending stocks estimate for the 2018/19 U.S. corn crop year is 1.890 bbu vs. Sep USDA est. of 1.774 bbu

·       U.S. sorghum crop is rated 54% Good/Excellent versus 55% last week and below 64% last year

• T-storm Weather: Heavy rain affects the northwest half of the Corn Belt and central / southern Plains over the next 7 to 10 days with the highest risk of field flooding in northern Iowa and Wisconsin given soils are saturated  

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ​U.S. soybean crop is rated 68% Good/Excellent, unchanged from last week but above 60% last year.  Dropping leaves is 83% vs. 78% last year & the 5-year avg of 75%.  Soybean harvest is 23% vs. 20% for both last year & the 5-year avg.

·       ATI Research: Ending stocks est. for the 2018/19 U.S. soybean crop year is 1.142 bbu vs. Sep USDA est. of 0.845 bbu

• T-storm Weather: Heavy rainfall impacting U.S. soybeans later this week generally ends from west to east over next Monday-Thursday (Oct. 8-11)
• ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to continue to range from 15-20 mbu per week short-term
• U.S. winter wheat planting is 43% vs. 34% last year and the 5-year avg. of 40%; Kansas at 41% vs. 5-year avg. of 32%

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLX18, unch @ $75.30; EBZ, -$0.42 @ $84.55; EBZ-QCLX,-$0.43; RBX, -0.0043; NGX, +.039; HOX, -.0077

·       Chicago ethanol gained $.0122 to $1.2950; basis levels vs Chicago mostly firmer—New York, +$0.0078 @ $.12; Gulf +$.0028 @ $.1000; Dallas, +$0.0178 @ $.0350; Tampa, +$0.0328 @ $.1650;  and LA, off $.0472 @ $.1900  

·       Ethanol RINs were up 1 ½ for 2017’s @ 11-11 ½; 2018’s were likewise up 1 ¼ @ 16 to 16 ½            

·       The Nov RBOB/Oct ethanol spread widened another $.0163 on Monday to +$.83250 per gallon 

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                  ​;    

• Choice boxed beef values gained $1.20 on Monday to $205.08 but are still down $1.08 vs. a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price firmed $0.04 last week to $110.65/cwt and is $2.64 higher v. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.05 on Monday to $79.93 and is up $1.23 vs. last week
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $35.73/cwt vs. last week’s $34.75, last month’s $32.35 & last year’s $34.74 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather