HIGHLIGHTS
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MARKET TREND—Mixed: CZ, -$.01; SX, -$.0425; WZU, +$.0375; KWZ, +$.0350. USDA supply/demand report 11:00 am CDT
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MACRO: China delays issuance of operating licenses for U.S. firms wanting to do business in there. ASIA: Lower: Nikkei, -0.27%; Shanghai, -0.33%;Hang Seng, -0.29%. EUROPE: Mostly higher: DAX, +0.11%; FTSE, -0.19%; CAC, +0.44%. WALL STREET: Futures are firm: DOW, +9; S&P, +1.25; NAS,+13.00. EXTERNALS: Oct crude: +$0.57 @ $69.82; Dec Gold: -$0.20 @ $1,202; Dec $ Index, -0.120 @ 94.720. DELY: SBM, 119; SBO, 280; C, 0: SB, 301; HRW, 7
· T-storm Weather: Dry and mild weather affect the central U.S. over the next week as upper-level high pressure lingers. Some changes follow in 7 to 10 days as thunderstorms develop in the Plains and western Corn Belt, but less-so in the Delta and southeast Corn Belt where drying continues for planting and harvesting. Flooding rains from Hurricane Florence are a threat to North Carolina over a multi-day period beginning as early as midday Thu., including its corn, soybean, & wheat areas of the east
· CZ, down $.01 @ $3.6575; CH, down $.0125 @ $3.7725. The funds sold 6 K on Tuesday
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SX, dn $.0425@ $8.2750; SF, dn $.0450 @ $8.41. Funds: Sold 8 SB, 4 SBM & 3 SBO. Board Crush: $1.66, +6, LY: $.86
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WZ, up $.0375 @ $5.2250; WH, up $.0350 @ $5.4125. The funds bought 6 K
;CORN/SORGHUM
· USDA WASDE report 11:00 am CDT: Avg. trade guess U.S. corn crop: 14.506 bbu (range 14.397-14.607), 14.586 in Aug.
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USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn carryout--17/18, 2.014 bbu (2.027 in Aug.); 18/19, 1.590 (1.684 in Aug.)
· T-storm Weather: Corn harvest conditions improve for the central U.S. this week, as coverage of wetness diminishes
· U.S. corn crop is rated 68% Good/Excellent vs. 67% last week & 61% last year. Harvest is 5% v. 5% last year & 3% avg.
· ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2018 U.S. corn crop is 177.3 bpa versus August USDA projection of 178.4
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA WASDE report 11:00 am CDT: Avg. trade guess U.S. soybean crop: 4.659 bbu (range 4.528-4.781), 4.586 in Aug.
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USDA WASDE: Avg. guess for U.S. soybean carryout--17/18, 0.418 bbu (0.430 in Aug.); 18/19, 0.836 (0.785 in Aug.)
· U.S. soybeans 68% Good/Excellent v. 66% last week & 60% last year. Dropping leaves: 31%, 20% last year, 54% avg.
· ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2018 U.S. soybean crop is 51.8 bpa vs. August USDA projection of 51.6
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USDA WASDE report at 11:00 am CDT: Avg. guess for U.S. all wheat carryout--18/19, 0.938 bbu (0.935 in Aug.)
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T-storm Weather: Much drier than normal over the next 10 days for Australia wheat with near-normal temperatures
ENERGY
· Firm: CLV18, +$0.57 @ $69.82; EBX, -$0.01 @ $79.05; EBX-QCLX, -$0.46; RBV, +0.0060; NGV, +.004; HOV, +.0009
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -0.8 (-8.6); Gasoline, +1.3 (+2.1); Distillates, +1.4 (+5.8). Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.077 mbpd (range: 1.070-1.084). Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 22.876 mb (range 22.640-23.103)
· Tuesday, cash ethanol markets were mixed: Chicago was quoted at $1.28875, unchanged; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.0912; Gulf, +$0.0912; Dallas, +$0.05875; Tampa, +$0.18875; and LA, +$0.24625
· Ethanol RINs eased yesterday: 2017’s slipped a ½ cent to 15 ¼ -16; and 2018’s were a ½ lower at 21 ¾ - 22 ½
· The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol spread widened $.0520 onTuesday to $.7212 per gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
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Choice boxed beef values eased 23-cents on Tuesday to $206.07 and are $4.75 lower compared to a week ago
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A week-to-week decline in choice boxed beef has been seen for 11 consecutive trading days
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USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.51 higher on Tue. at $68.14 and is up 69-cents vs. last week
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CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.55 on Tue. to $47.55. October futures fell $1.475 but are still $6.925 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather