HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Mixed:  CU, steady; SU, -$.0125; WU, +$.0325; KWU, +$.0375
• MACRO:  Global bourses are mostly higher today after U.S./Mexico ink a new trade deal. Tempering the bull market? 35% say a trade war; 28% say nothing, it will continue—CNBC poll.  Asia—Mostly higher: Nikkei, +0.06%; Shanghai, -0.10%;Hang Seng, +0.28%.  EUROPE:  Higher:  DAX, +0.20%; FTSE, +0.40%; CAC, +0.27%. WALL STREET: Futures are firm: DOW, +32; S&P, +3.25; NAS, +15.50.  EXTERNALS: Oct crude: +$0.30 @ $69.17; Dec Gold: +$4.10 @ $1,220; Dec $ Index, -0.179 @ 94.095

·        T-storm Weather: A warm and stormy pattern generally dominates the central U.S. over the next 10 to 14 days, despite a period of coolness that begins after a strong cool front passes over Tuesday-Wednesday (Aug. 28-29).  The main point remains that widespread coverage of near- and above-normal rainfall results for most corn and soybeans, especially the northwest two-thirds of production

·       CU, steady @ $3.4675; CZ, steady @ $3.6150.  The funds began the week selling 6 K          

• SU, dn $.0125 @ $8.3350; SX, dn $.0125 @ $8.47.  Funds: sold 6 SB, 5 SBM, bot 4 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.51, -$.05, LY: $.95
• WU, up $.0325 @ $5.0250; WZ, up $.04 @ $5.2650  The funds sold 8 K on Monday          

 CORN/SORGHUM

·       U.​S. corn crop is rated 68% Good/Excellent, unchanged versus last week but above 62% last year.  Dent is 61% vs. 42% last year and the 5-year average of 42%.  Mature is 10% vs. 5% last year and the 5-year average of 5%

·       ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2018 U.S. corn crop is 177.1 bpa versus August USDA projection of 178.4

·       U.S. sorghum crop is rated 53% Good/Excellent versus 49% last week and 65% last year

• T-storm Weather: Despite brief cooling Tue.-Wed., most corn in central U.S. over the next 10-14 days will be at least moderately warmer than normal with highs most often in the 80s & lows in the 60s through first week of September

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybean crop is rated 66% Good/Excellent versus 65% last week and 61% last year.  Setting pods: 95% vs. 92% last year and the avg. of 90%; Dropping leaves: 7% vs. 5% last year & the 5-year avg of 4% 

·       ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2018 U.S. soybean crop is 50.1 bpa vs. August USDA projection of 51.6

• T-storm Weather: Coverages of 14- & 30-day dryness for U.S. soybeans expected to stay very low through early Sep.
• ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to range from 15-20 mbu per week short-term
• T-storm Weather: Showers develop across southern Australia next 5-7 days, with 0.20”-0.60” totals in much of the wheat areas of WA & points east through SA, Vic, & southern NSW, incl. ~60% of wheat production; but more needed

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLV18, +$0.30 @ $69.17; EBV, +$0.51 @ $76.72; EBV-QCLV, +$0.21; RBV, +0.0082; NGV, .00; HOV, +.0136

·       On Monday, cash ethanol markets were mixed: Chicago was quoted at $1.3075, down $0.005; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.0875; Gulf, +$0.0875; Dallas, +$0.0225; Tampa, +$0.1475; and LA, +$0.1875

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker on Monday: 2017’s fell 5/8 to 15-15 ¼; and 2018’s eased 1/8 to 20 ½-20 ¾

·       The September RBOB/September ethanol spread widened further, $.0157 on Mondayto $.7806/gallon 

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                           &nb​sp;          

• Choice boxed beef values increased 31-cents on Monday to $213.63 but are still 35-cents lower vs. a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price fell $0.89. last week to $109.02/cwt but is $2.24 higher v. last year
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.48 on Monday to $64.63 but is still down $1.46 vs. last week 
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $21.94/cwt vs. last week’s $27.30, last month’s $19.63 & last year’s $34.34

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather