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MARKET TREND Mixed CU, Down 3, SQ, Down 9, WU, Up 4

July 13, 2018 07:58 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Mixed: CU, -$.0250; SQ, -$.0725; WU, +$.0550; KWU, +$.06. 
  • MACRO:  Citi, JPMorgan, Chase out with earnings—comments on tariff/trade implications will be scrutinized.  Asia—Mostly higher:  Nikkei, +1.85%; Shanghai, -0.22%; Hang Seng, +0.16%.  EUROPE:  Higher:  DAX, +0.17%; FTSE, +0.41%; CAC, +0.28%.  WALL STREET: Futures are mostly lower: DOW, -2; S&P, -0.75; NAS, +3.00EXTERNALS: Sep crude: -$0.42 @ $68.93; Aug Gold: -$5.40 @ $1,241; Dec $ Index, +.291 @ 94.430. Dely: BO, 577; RR,75; C, 177; HRW, 8; O,0; SB, 135, SRW, 0

·        T-storm Weather: Temperatures remain considerably above-normal across the U.S. Corn Belt until a cool front breaks heat Sunday-Monday.  A couple heavy thunderstorm clusters affect the northwest half of the Corn Belt today-Saturday, focused on wettest areas.  Scattered thunderstorms affect the rest of the Corn Belt (and nearby areas) Sunday-Monday when the main cool front passes

·        CU, dn $.0250 @ $3.4325; CZ, dn $.03 @ $3.5625. Funds bought 10 K on a friendly WASDE report                     

  • SQ, dn $.0725 @ $8.2650; SU, dn $.07 @ $8.32.  Funds: Sold 2 SB, 4 SBM; 3 SBO.  Board Crush: $2.05, -$.02; LY: $.88
  • WU, up $.0550 @ $4.90; WZ, up $.0450 @ $5.0575.  The funds were buyers of 15 K following yesterday’s report             

      ​CORN/SORGHUM

·        Unshipped 17/18 U.S. corn export sales are up 54% vs. 16/17 and near record for this time of year

·        ATI Research: USDA WASDE report confirms U.S. corn export demand remains strong with old-crop forecast boosted 100 mbu to 2.4 bbu.  New-crop est. up 125 mbu to 2.225 bbu, reflecting reduced prospects for S America & Russia

·        USDA WASDE pegs 18/19 U.S. corn carryout at 1.552 bbu compared to the average trade guess of 1.725 bbu

  • T-storm Weather: Generalized rain of 1.50"-3.00" affects most U.S. corn over next two weeks.  Another brief period of heat probably occurs July 21-23, but in response to a system in Canada that ultimately pulls cool air back to the south  

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        ATI Research: U.S. soybean carryout for 18/19 ballooned 195 mbu to 580 mbu in USDA WASDE report.  Main reason: Chinese 18/19 soybeans imports were scaled back 294 mbu from June and U.S. soybean export forecast fell 250 mbu

·        T-storm Weather: Additional rain is likely next week and the following week for most U.S. soybeans as cool and warm air continue to battle for position.  Generalized rain totals of 1.50"-3.00" are forecast

·        USDA Crop Production report lowers U.S. SRW wheat output 13 mbu to 303 mbu due to lower yields across the Eastern Corn Belt & Delta.  First survey-based estimate of 2018 HRS production was 584 mbu; ATI model is 588

  • T-storm Weather: Rain over next 7-10 days will be light for drought-stricken wheat in Germany, Denmark & the U.K.

ENERGY

·        Lower: CLU18-$.42 @ $68.93; EBU, -$0.69@ $73.76; EBU-QCLU-$0.26RBU-.0104;NGU, +.011HOU, -.0136

·        On Thursday, cash ethanol markets were higher: Chicago was quoted at $1.405, up $0.01; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.1825; Gulf, +$0.1075; Dallas, +$0.125; Tampa, +$0.245; and LA, +$0.395

·        Ethanol RINs were steady on Thursday: 2017’s unchanged at 16-17; and 2018’s unchanged at 24 ½-25

·        The August RBOB/August ethanol spread edged in $.0027 yesterday to +$.6607/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  ​;                        ​          

  • Choice boxed beef values fell 86-cents on Thursday to $206.58 and are down $1.85 vs. a week ago
  • ATI Research: USDA Supply/Demand report raises 2018 beef production by 25 mil lbs; output is now up 3.7% v. 2017
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout declined 80-cents on Thu. to $81.93 and is $3.01 lower compared to last week
  • ATI Research: USDA Supply/Demand report raises 2018 pork production by 30 mil lbs; output is now up 4.5% v. 2017

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

                             



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