HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Mixed: CK, steady; SK, +$.05; WK, +$.0050; KWK, -$.0050
• MACRO: Stocks around the world are “wavering”, ahead of today’s Federal Reserve announcement. Asia: Weaker:  Nikkei, Closed; Shanghai, -0.27%; Hang Seng, -0.43%.  EUROPE: Lower: DAX, -0.08%; FTSE, -0.60%; CAC, -0.31%.  WALL STREET:  Futures again look weaker—DOW, -27; S&P, -3.00; NAS, -24.50.  EXTERNALS: $ Index: -0.139 @ 89.000; Apr Gold: +$4.40 @ $1,316; May crude: +$0.54 @ $64.08

·       T-storm Weather: In South America, a round of thunderstorms affects Argentina Sat., but mostly in the north & less-so in the south.  In Brazil, widespread coverage of near- & above-normal rain is expected over the next 2 weeks.  The potential exception is in / near Minas Gerais, but only including 15% (or less) of second-crop corn production.  In the U.S., a sharply wetter period develops every few days from Mon.-Tue. forward, bringing rain to much of the HRW wheat belt, & heavy totals to the Delta

·       CK, unch @ $3.7450; CN, down $.0025 @ $3.8225.  The funds were said to be even inTuesday’s trade      

• SK, up $.0500 @ $10.3325; SN, up $.05 @ $10.44. Funds: Bot 2 K SB, 2 K SBM, sold 4 K SBO. Board crush:  $1.17, -2; LY: $.80
• WK, up $.0050 @ $4.5350; WN, up $.0025 @ $4.69.  Fund selling amounted to 2 K yesterday                

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, dry & seasonable weather prevail through at least Thu.  A strong system Fri.-Sun. produces 0.50”-1.00” in central areas, 1.00”-2.00” north; highest totals where ~30% of late-corn is grown & immature

• Consultant: Brazil corn crop estimate is steady at 86.0 MMT with a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward

·       Ethanol margins: $0.26 per gallon—down from $0.28 last week but above $0.23 last year.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

·       December 2018 corn futures on Tue. closed at $3.97 ¼—the lowest settlement price for the contract since Feb. 23

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather: In Argentina, dry & seasonable weather prevail through at least Thu.  A system Fri.-Sun. produces 0.50”-1.00” in central areas, 1.00”-2.00” north; highest totals where ~10% of soybeans are produced & immature

·       Consultant: Brazil soybean crop estimate is increased 1.0 MMT to 115.0 MMT with a neutral bias going forward

·       ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. wheat exports is the 13-18 mbu per week range compared to 22.6 mbu last year

·       T-storm Weather: In the U.S., key HRW wheat areas of central & southern Plains will be unseasonably mild & dry over Thu.-Sun.; highs in 70s-80s.  The next round of rain for HRW wheat is March 26-27, then 1 or 2 times into early April

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLK18, +$.54 @ $64.08; EBK, +$.51 @ $67.93; EBK-QCLK, -$0.02; RBK, +.0121;NGK, +.012; HOK, +.0188

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +2.4 (-2.7); Gasoline, -1.4 (-1.1); Distillates, -1.8 (-1.9).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.037 mil barrels/day (range 1.017-1.060).  Avg. est. for ethanol stocks is 24.0 mil barrels (range 23.4-24.8)

·       On Tuesday, cash ethanol markets were slightly lower: Chicago was quoted at $1.43, down $0.00625; Basis to Chicago—New York, +12; Gulf, +12 ½; Dallas, +7 ½; Tampa, +20 ½; and LA, +22

·       On Tuesday, ethanol RINs fell: 2016’s down 1 to 35-38; 2017’s off 1 to 37-40; and 2018’s declined 1 to 38-41

·       The April RBOB/April ethanol spread widened further yesterday, $.0420 to+$.5039/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  ​                   

• ​ Choice boxed beef values fell $1.52 on Tuesday to $223.35, and are 38-cents lower compared to last week
• Trade est. March 23 USDA Cattle on Feed report: Mar 1 On-Feed, 108.2%; Feb Placed, 104.4%; Feb Marketed, 101.2%
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 12-cents on Tuesday to $71.73, but is $2.67 lower vs. a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index declined $0.68 on Tue. to $64.29.  April futures gained $0.10, but are still $1.04 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather