HIGHLIGHTS
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MARKET TREND—Mixed: CH, -$.0025; SH, +$.0475; WH, steady; KWH, steady
· MACRO: A rising tide lifts all ships; and, the converse as the global equities sell-off continues . ASIA—Sharply lower: Nikkei, -4.73%; Shanghai, -3.38%; Hang Seng, -5.12%. EUROPE: Lower: DAX, -1.85%; FTSE, -1.94%; CAC, -1.92%. WALL STREET Futures—Lower—DOW, -137; S&P, -2.00; NAS, -13.50. EXTERNALS: $ Index: -.020 @ 89.365; Feb Gold:+$9.50 @ $1,342; Mar crude: -$.47 @ $63.68
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T-storm Weather: Mainly dry and hot weather continue through Thursday in Argentina. Scattered thunderstorms follow within Friday-Sunday as a cool front approaches and passes, producing 0.75" to 1.50" central and north, but lesser-totals south. In Brazil, scattered thunderstorms form along the remnant of a cool front in northern areas this week, then across central and southern areas next week, resulting in 1.75" to 3.50" over the next two weeks for most corn and soybeans
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CH, down $.0025 @ $3.5850; CK, down $.0025 @ $3.6625. The funds opened the week selling 6 K
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SH, up $.0475 @ $9.7450; SK, up $.0450 @ $9.8575. Funds sold 5 SB, 6 SBM, bot 1 SBO. Board Crush: $1.07, -$.01; LY: $.75
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WH, steady @ $4.4025; WK, uo $.0075 @ $4.5325. More selling with the funds unloading 4 K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
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USDA WASDE on Feb. 8: Avg. trade est U.S. corn carryout--17/18, 2.467 bbu (range 2.402-2.547) and 2.477 in Jan.
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USDA WASDE: Avg. trade est. 17/18 Brazil corn crop, 93.3 MMT (95.0 in Jan.); Argentina corn, 40.5 MMT (42.0 in Jan.)
· T-storm Weather: In Argentina, some rain follows next week, but well-organized & heavy amounts are not expected. The most likely scenario is for generalized rainfall of 1.00"-2.00" over the next two weeks vs. normal of 1.75"-2.50"
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Consultant: Argentina corn prod. est. unch at 39.0 MMT, with more downside risk for the crop than upside potential
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ATI Research: U.S. corn ending stocks for the 17/18 crop year are pegged at 2.387 bbu vs. USDA at 2.477 bbu
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
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USDA WASDE on Feb. 8: Avg. trade est U.S. soybean carryout--17/18, 0.488 bbu (range 0.455-0.540) and 0.470 in Jan.
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USDA WASDE: Avg. est. 17/18 Brazil soybeans, 111.5 MMT (110.0 in Jan.); Argentina soybean, 53.8 MMT (56.0 in Jan.)
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Consultant: Brazil soybean prod. est. unch at 112.0 MMT, with a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward
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ATI Research: U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 17/18 crop year are pegged at 0.587 bbu vs. USDA at 0.470 bbu
· USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess U.S. all wheat carryout--17/18, 0.988 bbu (range 0.937-1.014), 0.989 in Jan.
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ATI Research: U.S. HRW wheat ending stocks for the 17/18 crop year are pegged at 0.476 bbu vs. USDA at 0.484 bbu
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T-storm Weather: There is potential for a round of rain within drought-stricken HRW wheat areas next week
ENERGY
· Lower: CLH18, -$.47 @ $63.68; EBJ, -$.52 @ $67.10; EBJ-QCLJ, -$.04; RBH, -.0258;NGH, +.011; HOH, -.0123
· On Monday, cash ethanol markets were mixed: Chicago was quoted at $1.42375, down $0.01375; Basis to Chicago—New York, +11 ½; Gulf, +9 ½; Dallas, +5; Tampa, +14 ½; and LA, +17 ½
· On Monday, ethanol RINs firmed: 2016’s up ¾ at 62-63; 2017’s added ¾ to 63-64; and 2018’s added ½ to 63 ¾-64 ¾
· The Mar RBOB/Feb ethanol spread widened slightly on Monday, out $.0066 to+$.4156/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef values increased 33-cents on Monday to $209.43, and are 32-cents higher vs. a week ago
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5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was down $0.55 v. last week at $125.91/cwt, but is up $7.15 v. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.41 on Monday to $79.00, and is $2.60 lower vs. last week
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Current nearby board hog crush value is $48.12/cwt vs. last week’s $47.79, last month’s $49.91 & last year’s $43.09
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather