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MARKET TREND Lower CZ, down 2, SX, down 2,WZ, down 4

September 7, 2018 07:01 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Lower:  CZ, down $.0225; SX, down $.0225; WZU, down $.04; KWZ, down $.0150
  • MACRO:  Nothing new . . . global trade worries and emerging markets uncertainties remain dark clouds. ASIA: Mostly lower: Nikkei, -0.80%; Shanghai, +0.40%; Hang Seng, -0.01%.  EUROPE:  Lower:  DAX, -0.36%; FTSE, -0.57%; CAC, -0.26%.  WALL STREET: Futures are weaker: DOW, -50; S&P, -5.25; NAS, -18.50. EXTERNALS: Oct crude: -$0.09 @ $67.66; Dec Gold: +$2.10 @ $1,206; Dec $ Index,-0.068 @ 94.525.  DELY: SBM, 0; SBO, 373; C, 17; RR, 0; ETOH, 10; O, 2; SB, 350; HRW, 2; SRW, 186

·       T-storm Weather: A cool front, waves of energy, & the remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Gordon continue to converge on the Corn Belt over the next few days, producing heavy rainfall of 2.00"-4.00" across the southern half of the Corn belt & Delta, but generally just south of the 24% of U.S. soybean production that received at least 8.00" & field flooding over the last 30 days.  Drying is underway to the north and west, and a sharply drier period immediately begins from west to east over today-Sunday

·      CZ, dn $.0225 @ $3.64; CH, down $.02 @ $3.7625.  The funds were even in Thursdaytrade          

  • SX, dn $.0225 @ $8.37; SF, dn $.0225 @ $8.50.  Funds: Bot 1 SB, 4 SBM, sold 1 SBO. Board Crush: $1.58, +9, LY: $.92
  • WZ, down $.04 @ $5.0975; WH, dn $.03 @ $5.32.  The funds once again were sellers, at an estimated 5 K Thursday         

 CORN/SORGHUM

·      Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects (8)-6 mbu for 17/18 corn and 24-43 mbu for 18/19

  • T-storm Weather: An extended period of dry and mild weather develops next week as upper-level high pressure assembles in the central U.S., improving conditions for corn harvesting in all areas

·      ATI Research: Rapid development of the 2018 U.S. corn crop is reflected in crop progress.  Corn mature on average increases 10% over Sep. 2-9 to approx. 21%; however, corn mature this year as of Sep. 2 was already at 22%

  • Ethanol grind: Total of 1,087,000 barrels/day for week end Aug. 31—up 17 thou v. prior week and 2.5% higher v. 2017

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Export Sales report.  Trade expects (7) - 4 mbu for 17/18 soybeans and 15-33 for 18/19; soymeal, 0-100 K MT for 17/18 and 100-400 for 18/19; soyoil, 0-15 K MT for 17/18 and 0-35 for 18/19 

  • T-storm Weather: In the Corn Belt, rains end from west to east over today-Sunday.  A sustained period of drying continues / follows in most areas over the following 7 to 10 days, accelerating soybean maturation and/or drying

·      Export Sales report.  Trade expects 7-18 mbu for 18/19 all wheat

·      T-storm Weather: Only 11% of U.S. HRW wheat was drier normal over the last 60 days, indicative of adequate soil moisture for future planting and growth 

ENERGY

·      Mixed: CLV18-$0.09 @ $67.66; EBX, -$0.04 @ $76.44; EBX-QCLX+$0.02; RBV, +0.0010; NGV, +.009HOV, -.0050

·      On Thursday, cash ethanol markets were mostly lower: Chicago was quoted at $1.285, down $0.0125; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.0825; Gulf, +$0.09; Dallas, +$0.03; Tampa, +$0.15; and LA, +$0.255

·      Ethanol RINs were slightly higher on Thursday: 2017’s firmed 1/8 to 15-15 ½; and 2018’s gained 1/8 to 21-21 ½

·      The October RBOB/September ethanol spread eased again, off $.0068 to $.6670 per gallon 

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                   ​;    

  • Choice boxed beef values fell $1.65 on Thursday to $208.75 and are down $2.98 compared to last week  
  • Dressed steer weight for week end Aug. 25: 889 lbs, up 3 lbs v. last week, 881 for 4-week avg. and 887 last year
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained 15-cents on Thu. to $66.58 and is 89-cents higher vs. a week ago
  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.25 on Thu. to $45.92.  October futures were up $3.00 and are $9.055 above the index 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

 



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