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MARKET TREND Lower CZ down 1, SX down 2, WZ down 4

November 7, 2017 07:06 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Lower:  CZ: down $.01; SX: down $.0225; WZ: down $.0325; KWZ: down $.0275 

·       MACRO.  Not much in the way of news, markets are staying focused on developments in Asia. ASIA—Firmer:  Nikkei, +1.73%; Shanghai, +0.80%; Hang Seng,+1.39%.  EUROPE: Mostly lower: DAX, +0.08%; FTSE, -0.15%; CAC, -0.04%.   WALL STREET—Futures suggest a mixed start—DOW, +24; S&P, unch; NAS, -1.00.  EXTERNALS:  $ Index+.343 @ 95.000; Gold-$4.30 @ $1,277; Dec crude: -$0.01 @ $57.34/bl.  Deliveries: RR: 26; SB, 33

  • T-storm Weather: In the U.S., numerous systems pass over the next 10 days, but a lack of humidity keeps cattle and HRW wheat in much of the central and southern Plains dry.  Instead, periods of rain focus on corn and SRW wheat areas to the east. Temperatures continually fluctuate over the next 10 to 14 days, averaging below-normal in snow-covered areas of the north and near-normal elsewhere
  • CZ, down $.01 @ $3.47; CH, down $.0075 @ $3.6075.  The funds were even inMonday’s trading session  
  • SX, down $.0225 @ $9.8175; SF, down $.0225 @ $9.9175.  Funds:  Bought 5 SB, 4 SBM, 3 SBO.  Board Crush: $.88, +1; LY: $.71
  • WZ, down $.0325 @ $4.2750; WH, down $.0350 @ $4.4475.  Fund buying on Monday was estimated at 4 K  

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Nov. 9 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 2017 U.S. corn crop: 14.323 bbu (range 14.127-14.459) and 14.280 in Oct.

  • Nov. 9 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn carryout--17/18, 2.360 bbu (range 2.212-2.431) and 2.340 in Oct.

·       U.S. corn condition ratings are discontinued for the season.  Corn harvest is 70% v. 84% last year & 5-year avg. of 83%

·       T-storm Weather: Central/northern corn areas of Brazil experience scattered rain on most of the next 7 days

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 17/18 U.S. corn 2.356 bbu versus October USDA est. of 2.340

·       U.S. sorghum harvest progress is 72% vs. 83% last year and the 5-year avg. of 78%

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Nov. 9 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 2017 U.S. soybean crop: 4.404 bbu (range 4.340-4.467) and 4.431 in Oct.

·       Nov. 9 WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean carryout--17/18, 0.420 bbu (range 0.340-0.461) and 0.430 in Oct.

·       U.S. soybean harvest is 90% vs. 92% last year & behind the 5-year avg. of 91%

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 17/18 U.S. soybean 0.459 bbu versus October USDA est. of 0.430

·       T-storm Weather: After rain across central/northern Brazil soybean areas this week, a drier period follows Nov. 13-19

·       Nov. 9 WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. all wheat carryout--17/18, 0.956 bbu (range 0.940-0.987) and 0.960 in Oct.

·       U.S. winter wheat crop condition ratings peg Good/Excellent at 55% vs. 52% last week and v. 58% last year

ENERGY

·       Lower:  CLZ17-$.01 @ $57.34; EBF,-0.18 @ $64.09; EBF-QCLZ-$0.18; RBZ-.008;NGZ, -.028; ​HOZ, -.0030

·       Cash ethanol markets were mostly higher on Monday: Chicago is quoted at $1.4625 , up $0.02625; Basis to Chicago—New York, +7; Gulf, +4 ¾; Dallas, -1 ¼; Tampa, +12 ¼; and LA, +12 ¾

·       Ethanol RINs weaker: 2016’s down 1/8 to 96 ½-97 ½; 2017’s off 1/8 to 96 ½-97 ½; & 2018’s eased 1/8 to 96-97

·       The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread narrowed in $.0234 Monday, to +$.35000/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                               &​nbsp;     

  • Choice boxed beef values increased $1.83 on Monday to $210.57, and are $7.55 higher compared to a last week
  • 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $6.55 v. last week at $123.53/cwt, and is $19.22 higher v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 24-cents on Mon. to $79.24, but is still $1.36 higher v. a week ago

  • Current nearby board hog crush value is $42.11/cwt vs. last week’s $40.42, last month’s $36.40 & last year’s $23.26

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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