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MARKET TREND Lower CN, Down 4, SN, Down 9, WN, Down 8

June 4, 2018 07:01 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Lower CN, -$.0375; SN, -$.0850; WN, -$.0825; KWN, -$.11 
  • MACRO:  A rising tide raises all ships—Friday’s better than expected U.S. jobs report--the domestic economy looks strong and over-riding trade concerns for the moment.  Asia—Positive: Nikkei, +1.37%; Shanghai, +0.52%; Hang Seng, +1.66%. EUROPE: Higher as well: DAX, +0.31%; FTSE, +0.70%; CAC, +0.47%.  WALL STREET: Futures indicate a solid start for the Street: DOW, +126; S&P, +9.75; NAS, +29.75EXTERNALS: July crude: -$0.35 @ $65.46; Aug Gold: -$1.60 @ $1,298; $ Index-.419@ 92.850

·       T-storm Weather: Rainfall amounts are increased for the next 10 days, bringing near-and above-normal rainfall of 1-2” for the period running from now through June 15th. Temperatures will be warmer than normal  for corn, soybeans and spring wheat, but the rains will maintain adequate soil moisture levels. Rain amounts over the weekend were within expectations as a heavy amounts focused on/near much of eastern NebraskaFriday night. June 15th forward looks like it should have a combination of above normal temperatures, mixed with periodic thunderstorms 

·       CN, down $.0375 @ $3.8775; CU, down $.0375 @ $3.9675.  The funds closed out the week by selling 7 K                 

  • SN, dn $.1050 @ $10.1075; SQ, dn $.10525 @ $10.1575. Funds: 0 SB, sld 2 SBM; bot 2 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.45 , -$.04; LY: $.84
  • WN, dn $.0850 @ $5.1475; WU, dn $.0850 @ $5.3225.  The funds sold 3 K on Friday             

   CORN/SORGHUM

·       Corn should be 95+% planted on Monday:  92% LW; 95% LY and 95% AVG

·       Corn ratings should hold steady or improve 1 point from LW’s 79% G/VG figure. Yield ideas certainly seem to have a steady to slightly higher bias despite June ridging talk

·       Corn export inspections released at 10 AM: 63-73 expected; 67.1 LW with 52.0/wk needed

·       NASS April Ethanol crush 445, as expected. Sep-April up 2.7% at 3.26 bbu, slightly ahead of the 2.6% increase forecast

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

  • Consultant: SB planting expected to be 85% Monday, up from 77% LW and versus 81% LY and 75% AVG
  • Initial SB ratings out on Monday with 78-80% G/E likely
  • SB inspections expected at 19-27, versus 21.2 LW and 26.2 needed: Wheat expected at 15-22, 15.8 LW
  • Winter wheat conditions expected to improve a point to 39%, 10 points below LY and versus 43% for the 5-year average.  Spring wheat ratings expected to be around 70% +/-, versus 55% LY and 68% AVG
  • April SB Crush was neutral at 171.6 (trade: 171.6) with SBO stocks slightly negative at 2.689 bil lbs (trade: 2.600)

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLN18-$.35 @ $65.46; EBQ, -$.80 @ $75.99; EBQ-QCLQ, -$0.44RBN-.0034;NGN, +.010HON, -.0152

·       Friday, cash ethanol markets were slightly weaker: Chicago was quoted at $1.415, off .0060;  Basis to Chicago—New York, +$.1135; Gulf, +$.1085; Dallas, +$.0735; Tampa, +$.1985; and LA, +$.2435 

·       Ethanol RINs were firmer Friday: 2017’s rose 1 ¾ to 17-18 ½ and 2018’s were ¾ higher at 21-23 ½

·       The July RBOB/June ethanol spread lost $.0179 on Friday, slipping to +$.6814/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                           &nb​sp;         

  • Choice boxed beef values eased 67-cents on Friday to $227.53 and are $1.47 lower compared to the prior week
  • Fairly active cash cattle trading developed on Friday in the North, with most sales at $111—up $1.25 vs. last week
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.97 on Friday to $75.07 but is up $2.17 vs. a week ago
  • CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.38 on Friday to $70.01.  June futures gained $0.975 and are $7.59 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

                  



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