HIGHLIGHTS
-
MARKET TREND—Lower: CK, -$.0025; SK, -$.0575; WK, -$.0250; KWK, -$.0250
· MACRO: Leading import opponent exits White House, suggesting further market volatility. Asia: Down: Nikkei, -0.77%; Shanghai, -0.55%; Hang Seng, -1.03%. EUROPE: A little weaker: DAX, -0.14%; FTSE, -0.05%; CAC, -0.44%. WALL STREET: Not pretty—DOW futures, -301; S&P, -25.25; NAS, -54.00. EXTERNALS: $ Index: -0.085 @ 89.505; MarGold: -$3.00 @ $1,331; Apr crude: -$.53 @ $62.07. Deliveries: SBM, 135; SBO, 35; RR, 6; C, 67; ETOH, 0; HRW, 7; Oats, 2; SB, 0
· T-storm Weather: In Argentina, dry weather occurs through at least Friday, after which some thunderstorms occur this weekend, but most are likely to be confined to far-southern areas because of a lack of humidity. Additional thunderstorms follow next Tuesday-Wednesday, but most rain focuses along to just north and east of key central and southern areas. Approximately 3.00" of rain is normal of the next two weeks with only northern areas expected to receive near-normal totals through then
· CK, down $.0025 @ $3.88; CN, down $.0075 @ $3.9475. The funds were modest buyers, 2 K on Tuesday
-
SK, dn $.0550 @ $10.6925; SN, dn $.0550 @ $10.7750. Funds: sold 2K SB, 5K SBM, bot 3K SBO. Board crush: $1.36, -6; LY: $.74
-
WK, down $.0250 @ $5.0450; WN, down $.0225 @ $5.19. Fund selling was estimated at 4 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· T-storm Weather: In Argentina, most corn is forecast to receive generalized rain of 0.50”-1.00” through March 15, followed by another 0.25”-0.50” the following week. Exception is the northern 30%, where 1.50”-3.00” is probable
-
Consultant: Brazil corn crop estimate is steady at 86.0 MMT with a neutral to lower bias going forward
· Ethanol margins: $0.23 per gallon—down from $0.29 last week but above $0.18 last year. EIA report at 9:30 am CST
· December 2018 corn futures on Tue. closed at $4.06 ½—the highest settlement price for the contract since Aug. 14
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· T-storm Weather: In Argentina, most soybeans forecast to receive generalized rain of 0.50”-1.00” through March 15, followed by another 0.25”-0.50” the following week. Exception is the northern 10%, where 1.50”-3.00” is probable
· Consultant: Brazil soybean crop est. increased 1.0 MMT to 114.0 MMT; neutral to slightly higher bias going forward
-
November 2018 soybean futures Tue. closed at $10.45 ½; one year ago, November 2017 futures settled at $10.13 ½
· ATI Research: Bias on near-term U.S. wheat exports is the 13-18 mbu per week range compared to 21.2 mbu last year
· T-storm Weather: Rain cannot be ruled out in U.S. HRW wheat areas of the Plains in 10-14 days, but the chance is low
ENERGY
· Lower: CLJ18, -$.53 @ $62.07; EBK, -$.54 @ $65.25; EBK-QCLK, +$0.02; RBJ, -.0045;NGJ, +.024; HOJ, -.0132
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +2.3 (+5.7); Gasoline, -0.6 (-4.5); Distillates, -1.0 (+1.5). Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.047 mil barrels/day (range 1.030-1.065). Avg. est. for ethanol stocks is 23.0 mil barrels (range 22.8-23.3)
· On Tuesday, cash ethanol markets were mostly higher: Chicago was quoted at $1.47, up $0.01125; Basis to Chicago—New York, +8 ½; Gulf, +12 ¾; Dallas, +4 ½; Tampa, +17; and LA, +21
· On Tuesday, ethanol RINs eased: 2016’s fell 1 ¼ to 43-45 ½; 2017’s down 1 ¼ at 45-47 ½; & 2018’s off 1 ¼ at 46-48 ½
· The April RBOB/April ethanol spread shed $0.0418, slipping to +$.4351/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY   ;
-
Choice boxed beef values were 12-cents higher on Tuesday at $223.35, and are up $2.83 compared to last week
-
Since Feb. 13, choice boxed beef values have increased $15.99 (7.7%) and are the highest since June 30
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.64 on Tuesday to $77.00, and is $1.59 lower vs. a week ago
-
CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.17 on Monday to $67.52. April futures declined $0.60, but are $0.68 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather