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MARKET TREND Higher CN, Up 2, SN, Up 1, WN, Down 2

May 31, 2018 07:00 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Higher: CN, +$.0325; SN, +$.03; WN, +$.0250; KWN, +$.04 
  • MACRO:  Most attention centered on Italy with the country’s president now considering the possibility of reviving a coalition government.  Asia—Higher:Nikkei, +0.83%; Shanghai, +1.86%; Hang Seng, +1.37%.  EUROPE: Mostly higher:DAX, -0.43%; FTSE, +0.13%; CAC, +0.18%.  WALL STREET: Futures weaker: DOW, -27;S&P, -1.75; NAS, -0.50.  EXTERNALS: July crude: -$0.39 @ $67.82; Aug Gold: +$2.00@ $1,308; $ Index-.395 @ 92.840

·       T-storm Weather:  Is forecasting near-normal temperatures NW, but enough hints suggest that it will be warmer than normal in at least the central and southern Plains, and potentially into the western Corn Belt. Additionally, uncertainty escalates by next weekend when a large upper-level high could form over some of the key production areas. Not a major issue, but notable the 60-day dryness is elevated compared to at least the last four growing seasons; rain the next few days assuming greater importance

·       CN, up $.0325 @ $43.9675; CU, up $.0350 @ $4.06.  The funds were again heavy sellers with 20 K liquidated yesterday                 

  • SN, up $.03 @ $10.26; SQ, up $.03 @ $10.3075. Funds: Sold 8 SB, 6 SBM; bot 3 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.52 , +$.03; LY: $.85
  • WN, up $.0250 @ $5.2450; WU, up $.02 @ $5.41.  Fund selling: 8 K                     

   CORN​/SORGHUM

·       December corn’s Wednesday’s $4.1425 close had the contract shedding 12 ¼ cents the past week but is still 28 ½ cents above LY’s 5/30 $3.8575 close

·       Corn shipment pace averaging a healthy 62/week, 10 more than is needed.  And, unshipped book is a record

·       Tropical Depression Alberto produces a fast-moving wall of moderate to heavy rain in far-eastern Illinois, western Indiana, and Michigan over the next 6 to 9 hours, then ends

  • Ethanol margins: $0.26 per gallon—up a penny from a week ago and $.02 less than  last year at this time

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

  • SX18 closed at $10.36 ¾ yesterday, a drop of 12 cents the past week and versus LY’s 5/30 close of $9.19 ¾
  • ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. soybean planting progress increases approx. 13% from May 28-June 3 to 90%

·       WN18 has shed 9 cents the past week, closing at $5.22 Wednesday and versus 5/30/18’s $4.29 ½ close

·       SB exports in May averaging 25 mbu/wk and SBM, 281 K MT.  Both are record high for this time of year! And, pace is likely to remain brisk given unprecedented large unshipped sales for both:  ATI sees near-term SB exports at 20+ and SBM, at 260+ K MT per week

  • CBT July 2018 wheat futures on Tuesday closed at $5.21 ½; one year ago, CBT July 2017 wheat settled at $4.29 ½

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLN18-$.39 @ $67.82; EBN, -$.31 @ $77.19; EBN-QCLN, +$0.08RBN,+.0001NGN, +.013HON, -.0129

·       Wednesday, cash ethanol markets were weaker: Chicago was quoted at $1.45 ¼, down 2 1/8; Basis to Chicago—New York, +11; Gulf, +11 ¼; Dallas, +6 ¼; Tampa, +18 ¼; and LA, +23 ¾ 

·       Ethanol RINs were again lower: 2017’s lost ½ to 16 ½- 7 ½; and 2018’s fell ½ to 25-26

·       The June RBOB/June ethanol gained $.0713 yesterday, closing at +$.72420/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY          &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;  

  • Choice boxed beef values were $1.12 higher on Wednesday at $228.68, but are down $1.40 vs. a week ago
  • Limit gains of $3 in June and August cattle futures on Wednesday will trigger expanded trading limits on Thursday
  • USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 71-cents on Wednesday to $74.81, but is 71-cents higher vs. last week
  • CME Lean Hog Index was $0.04 higher on Wed. at $69.50.  June futures gained $1.65 and are $7.825 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

        



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