HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Futures are expected to open steady. Monday’s closes are reported below  
• MACRO:  China’s manufacturing activity index declines for the first time in 19 months, adding to concerns for an economic slow down.  Asia: Weaker-Nikkei, -0.31%; Shanghai, -1.15%; Hang Seng, -2.77%. EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.23%; FTSE, -0.87%; CAC, -1.61%.  WALL STREET: Futures are off sharply:  DOW, -314; S&P, -34.25; NAS,-130.00.  EXTERNALS: Feb crude: -$0.44 @ $44.97; Dec 19 Gold: +$6.90@ $1,319; Mar $ Index, +.155 @ 95.890. Del’y 01/03: SBM, 514; SBO, 835; RR, 16; SB, 1,109

·      T-storm Weather: : Dryness is likely to remain a concern in Brazil and Paraguay going forward, while wetness becomes notable in Argentina.  The problem in Brazil and Paraguay is that there are not clear-cut forcing mechanisms to produce typical December & January heavy rains, instead only allowing scattered t-storms to form over the next week, followed by a drier and warmer period as upper-level high pressure re-forms

·      CH, dn $.0050 Monday @ $3.75; CK, down $.0025 Monday @ $3.83.  Fund activity ahead of the New Years holiday was even                

• SF, dn $.0025 @ $8.8250; SH, dn $.0050 @ $8.95.  Funds sold 1 SB, 2 SBM & were even SBO. Board Crush: $0.94, -6; LY: $1.00 
• WH, dn $.0825 Monday @ $5.032; WK, dn $.0825 Monday @ $5.1025.  The funds sold 2 K on Monday                        

CORN/SORGHUM

·      Corn inspections continue light at 36.0, well below the 50 per week pace needed and at the lower end of the 33-43 mbu trade range

·      Milo shipments were also on the low side at 1.1 million, less than ½ the implied rate of 2.3 per week

·      Consultant: Brazil corn estimate lowered 1.0 MMT to 94.0.  Full-season corn is pollinating so continued dryness would be detrimental for yield potential

·      March 2019 corn futures on Monday closed at $3.75; one year ago, March 2018 corn futures settled at $3.50 ½

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Soybean exports of 24.9 million fell short of the 26-37 mbu trade range and well below the implied rate of 36.9 suggested by the USDA forecast

·      Wheat exports were no exception, with AMS reporting shipments of 13.8, slightly under the low end of the 14-23 mbu trade estimate and nearly 10 million per week below the implied rate

·      Consultant: Brazil soybean crop estimate lowered 2.0 MMT to 119.0.  Soybeans in southern production areas are setting and filling pods so continued dryness would be detrimental for yield potential

·      T-storm Weather: the storm track lingers across Argentina, producing heavier t-storm clusters through Thursday, with a 5-day break before storms return next Tuesday

ENERGY

·      Lower:  CLG19, -$0.44 @ $44.97; EBH, -$0.69 @ $53.11; EBH-QCLHG, -$0.25; RBG, -.0175; NGG, +.047; HOG, -.0101

·      Chicago ethanol slipped $.0025 to $1.22875; basis values were mostly firmer: New York, +$.0025 @ $.18625; Gulf, -$.0025 @ $.10125; Dallas, +$.0075 @ $.12625; Tampa, +$.0075 @ $.26625; and LA, +$.00250 @ $.26125    

·      RINs were unch: 2017’s, -$0.50 @ 17 ½- 18; 2018’s, unch @ 20 ½ -21; 2019’s, -0.50 @ 23 ½-24                            

​·      The Feb RBOB/Jan ethanol spread narrowed $.0331 Monday to+$.03871/gal

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                ​;                       

• Choice boxed beef up $0.94 on Monday to $2154.35
• February 2019 live cattle futures on Monday closed at $123.875
• USDA mandatory PM pork carcass cutout reported at $70.19 Monday, down $.27
• CME Lean Hog Index gained $.12 Monday to $53.23.  February futures gained $0.325 and are $7.75 above the index